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WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0584 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 312315Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 615 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense severe-wind producing bow echo will continue eastward this evening into western and central Iowa and perhaps adjacent parts of northern Missouri. Numerous to widespread severe gusts (60-90 mph), and perhaps a tornado, are the primary hazards with this squall line as it moves east into the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Des Moines IA to 35 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582...WW 583... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0583 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 583 SEVERE TSTM KS 312250Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Kansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of organizing severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas will gradually move into the Watch area this evening. Upscale growth into one or two linear clusters is forecast. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Russell KS to 25 miles north northeast of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW EAR TO 45 WSW LNK TO 15 N TQE. ..WEINMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-155-312340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC029-039-065-089-117-123-137-141-147-157-163-179-183-201- 312340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLOUD DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MARSHALL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH WASHINGTON NEC001-025-035-053-055-059-061-065-067-083-095-097-099-109-127- 129-131-133-137-151-153-155-159-169-177-181-312340- Read more

WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 9V9 TO 10 N ABR TO 30 NNW BRD. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC009-011-023-057-059-065-067-073-093-095-097-121-141-145-149- 151-171-173-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA HUBBARD ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON POPE SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE SDC013-017-025-029-037-039-051-057-059-091-115-312340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUFFALO CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL GRANT HAMLIN HAND MARSHALL SPINK Read more

WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 9V9 TO 10 N ABR TO 30 NNW BRD. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC009-011-023-057-059-065-067-073-093-095-097-121-141-145-149- 151-171-173-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA HUBBARD ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON POPE SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE SDC013-017-025-029-037-039-051-057-059-091-115-312340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUFFALO CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL GRANT HAMLIN HAND MARSHALL SPINK Read more

WW 579 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 311715Z - 010000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Central and Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will likely produce scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 65-80 mph this afternoon as they move east-northeastward. Supercells should develop and pose a greater threat for severe hail generally around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter, especially in parts of central to northeast South Dakota. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west southwest of Aberdeen SD to 50 miles northeast of Alexandria MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BRD TO 35 WSW HIB TO 40 NNW HIB TO 35 SSE INL. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-035-115-137-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CROW WING PINE ST. LOUIS WIC013-031-312340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT DOUGLAS LSZ145-312340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BRD TO 35 WSW HIB TO 40 NNW HIB TO 35 SSE INL. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-035-115-137-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CROW WING PINE ST. LOUIS WIC013-031-312340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT DOUGLAS LSZ145-312340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 311910Z - 010000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Minnesota Far Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized, bowing complex of thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to around 65-75 mph as it moves quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Hibbing MN to 75 miles south southwest of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more