Aggregator

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MMO TO 25 SSW RAC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-091-093-097-105-197-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-162140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-162140- CW Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JVL TO 20 ENE VOK TO 35 W CWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-039-047-055-059-061-071-077-079-087- 089-097-101-105-117-127-131-133-135-137-139-141-162140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE ROCK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1685 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Central/Southern OH into Far Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161740Z - 161945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across central/southern Ohio and far northern Kentucky this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with a few of these thunderstorm clusters. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across central/southern OH and far northern KY over the next few hours as the well-defined MCV currently over far southeast IN progresses northeastward into the moist and destabilizing downstream airmass. Deep-layer flow across the region is modest, resulting in a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, some enhanced low/mid-level southwesterlies will accompany the MCV, which could contribute to a few loosely organized, northeastward-progressing clusters capable of isolated damaging gusts. Limited severe coverage is expected to preclude the need for watch. ..Mosier/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... LAT...LON 40048474 40848401 41008225 40288168 38668224 38128386 38938467 40048474 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more