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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more