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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISALAND...CONNECTICUT...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the westerlies will remain modestly amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period. While one notable short wave perturbation may accelerate northeastward out of the Pacific Northwest into the eastern Canadian provinces, another is forecast to dig inland across the Pacific Northwest, maintaining larger-scale troughing there. Downstream, broadly anticyclonic flow is forecast across the northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest, around the northern periphery of fairly prominent mid/upper ridging centered over the northern Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity. Farther east, it appears that a significant mid-level trough emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity will continue to dig across the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward across the northern Atlantic Seaboard. The eastern trough will be accompanied by a reinforcing intrusion of cooler, drier air southeast of the Great Lakes region and across the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard by Sunday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to generally stall across the lower Ohio into middle Missouri Valleys and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, beneath the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Based on latest model output, confidence is increasing in the likelihood of appreciable (CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg) pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the southward advancing front, as far north as the southern tier of New York through portions of northern Vermont/New Hampshire into central Maine by around 18-19Z Sunday afternoon. Forcing for ascent along/ahead of the front, aided by the approaching upstream mid-level trough, is expected to support the initiation of strong thunderstorm development, in the presence of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30 kt. Forecast soundings indicate moistening thermodynamic profiles, including surface dew points in the mid 60s to near 70F, but with sufficient sub-saturation to allow for evaporative cooling, in addition to heavy precipitation loading, to enhance downdrafts and downward momentum transfer. Initial activity probably will be accompanied by potentially damaging downbursts, and perhaps some hail, before perhaps consolidating into a line with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts while spreading southeastward into and across coastal areas. ...Lower Missouri into Lower Ohio Valleys... East of the warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air across the Great Plains, convection allowing guidance suggests that one or two east-southeastward propagating clusters of storms could evolve along the frontal zone across the region Sunday into Sunday night. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support moderate to large potential instability along and south of the front, near the southern periphery of west-northwesterly mid-level flow supportive of modest shear. However, with no low-level jet to focus convective development, except perhaps across parts of northwestern Missouri late Sunday evening, and mid/upper support still unclear, confidence in depicting areas of higher severe probabilities, which may eventually be needed, remains low at this time. ...Northern/Central Great Plains... Thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates and sizable CAPE are likely to persist across much of the region through this period, in the presence of modest to weak deep-layer shear. However, mid/upper support for convective development remains unclear, and warming mid-level temperatures downstream of the Pacific Northwest trough may strengthen inhibition, contributing to more sparse thunderstorm coverage than prior days. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND VA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the northern/central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest and the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into this afternoon. Low-probability tornado potential is also evident in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. ...Northern/central Great Plains... A favorable setup for discrete supercells is anticipated along a lee trough from the WY/NE border into eastern MT and far western ND. While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across southern NE, a ribbon of increasing moisture will be advected north-northwest beneath a pronounced EML. A shortwave trough will eject along the Canadian border across the Northwest. An attendant belt of 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies will overspread much of MT into ND, with a separate belt of confluent westerlies across southeast WY through NE. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells as initial storms develop during the mid to late afternoon, with large to very hail possible. Signals for greater convective coverage along the MT/ND border and in the western NE vicinity may support a greater than isolated severe gust threat. With a deeper and hotter boundary layer with southward extent into KS, upscale growth into a forward-propagating cluster eastward along the NE/KS border is possible this evening. ...Midwest... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z across IA, with a separate cluster of elevated convection possible farther northeast in WI. A downstream split in severe potential may occur as the MCS likely persists and evolves southeastward. The WI activity may progress and intensify across Lower MI by afternoon, where deep-layer shear will be stronger but instability weaker. Scattered damaging winds and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. The IA MCS should progress along the northwest/southeast-oriented MLCAPE gradient towards the Lower OH Valley. Most CAMs struggle to greatly intensify this MCS, perhaps owing to warming mid-level temperatures modulating instability. Scattered damaging wind swaths, with some hail risk along the southwest flank of the MCS, may occur in the morning, but will most likely peak into the afternoon. ...VA to northern NC... A similar setup to Friday afternoon is anticipated, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Ample buoyancy is again expected across the Carolina Coastal Plain into southern VA with a gradient in MLCAPE shifted northward in the Mid-Atlantic States. Around 20-kt 500-mb westerlies will support weakly organized multicell clusters as scattered to numerous storms develop through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts producing damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/19/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190547
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated
with a tropical wave, is located about 1200 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for development of this system during the next few days,
as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, by the
early to middle part of next week, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more