Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the Northwest will gradually intensify later today and tonight, as a stronger shortwave and mid-level jet approach from the eastern Pacific. Increasing flow aloft will move inland, supporting the potential for strong surface winds and low humidity over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough shifts east, mid-level flow should strengthen over parts of the western Great Basin. Gusty downslope winds are likely in the lee of the Sierra and across parts of southern NV and western UT. Surface winds of 15-25 mph should overlap with RH below 15%, and within areas of dry fuels this afternoon. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of NV and into portions of northern CA, southern ID and far western UT. Confidence in the development of nearly to briefly critical meteorological conditions is highest over parts of southern NV where winds are expected to be slightly stronger. However, fuels here are also slightly less receptive, and the overlap of favorable wind/RH may also be briefer. Thus, confidence remains too low for critical highlights currently. ...Cascades and Columbia Gorge... Increasing mid-level winds will combine with a strong onshore pressure gradient behind the departing cold front to drive 15-20 mph winds through Cascade Gaps and into the western Columbia Basin. While cooler and more moderate, pockets of RH below 25% should overlap with the stronger winds. The duration of these breezy and somewhat dry conditions may be somewhat limited, but elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are possible within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH LA TO THE COASTAL WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Per latest NHC forecasts and ensemble guidance, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf and make landfall along the LA coast around Wednesday evening. A low-probability tornado threat with outer-band convection should reach coastal LA by Wednesday morning. The more favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and intrusion of deeper tropical moisture (surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of south-central to southeast LA and far southeast MS/southwest AL. As the TC progresses inland and weakens Wednesday night, some broadening of the favorable SRH/surface-based buoyancy environment should spread east into the coastal FL Panhandle. The northern extent of a low-probability tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS and interior south AL Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest to the northern High Plains... A shortwave trough will progress inland from the coastal Pacific Northwest, likely reaching the northern Rockies to central Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Large-scale ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered thunderstorms across the interior Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid-level flow will remain displaced west of the shortwave trough, moderate enhancement of southwesterlies will occur ahead of it. This should be adequate for marginal updraft rotation amid weak surface-based buoyancy. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible into the early evening. Separately, isolated to widely scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms should form in the late afternoon along a lee trough towards a quasi-stationary front over the northern High Plains. Meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear within a meridional wind profile suggest sporadic severe gusts in microbursts will be the main threat. Along the immediate north of the front, a confined corridor of greater moisture/instability should be in place during the afternoon/evening, but capping will likely limit surface-based development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible into Wednesday night, but potential for severe hail appears negligible. ..Grams.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH LA TO THE COASTAL WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Per latest NHC forecasts and ensemble guidance, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf and make landfall along the LA coast around Wednesday evening. A low-probability tornado threat with outer-band convection should reach coastal LA by Wednesday morning. The more favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and intrusion of deeper tropical moisture (surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of south-central to southeast LA and far southeast MS/southwest AL. As the TC progresses inland and weakens Wednesday night, some broadening of the favorable SRH/surface-based buoyancy environment should spread east into the coastal FL Panhandle. The northern extent of a low-probability tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS and interior south AL Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest to the northern High Plains... A shortwave trough will progress inland from the coastal Pacific Northwest, likely reaching the northern Rockies to central Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Large-scale ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered thunderstorms across the interior Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid-level flow will remain displaced west of the shortwave trough, moderate enhancement of southwesterlies will occur ahead of it. This should be adequate for marginal updraft rotation amid weak surface-based buoyancy. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible into the early evening. Separately, isolated to widely scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms should form in the late afternoon along a lee trough towards a quasi-stationary front over the northern High Plains. Meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear within a meridional wind profile suggest sporadic severe gusts in microbursts will be the main threat. Along the immediate north of the front, a confined corridor of greater moisture/instability should be in place during the afternoon/evening, but capping will likely limit surface-based development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible into Wednesday night, but potential for severe hail appears negligible. ..Grams.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH LA TO THE COASTAL WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Per latest NHC forecasts and ensemble guidance, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf and make landfall along the LA coast around Wednesday evening. A low-probability tornado threat with outer-band convection should reach coastal LA by Wednesday morning. The more favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and intrusion of deeper tropical moisture (surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of south-central to southeast LA and far southeast MS/southwest AL. As the TC progresses inland and weakens Wednesday night, some broadening of the favorable SRH/surface-based buoyancy environment should spread east into the coastal FL Panhandle. The northern extent of a low-probability tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS and interior south AL Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest to the northern High Plains... A shortwave trough will progress inland from the coastal Pacific Northwest, likely reaching the northern Rockies to central Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Large-scale ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered thunderstorms across the interior Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid-level flow will remain displaced west of the shortwave trough, moderate enhancement of southwesterlies will occur ahead of it. This should be adequate for marginal updraft rotation amid weak surface-based buoyancy. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible into the early evening. Separately, isolated to widely scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms should form in the late afternoon along a lee trough towards a quasi-stationary front over the northern High Plains. Meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear within a meridional wind profile suggest sporadic severe gusts in microbursts will be the main threat. Along the immediate north of the front, a confined corridor of greater moisture/instability should be in place during the afternoon/evening, but capping will likely limit surface-based development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible into Wednesday night, but potential for severe hail appears negligible. ..Grams.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH LA TO THE COASTAL WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Per latest NHC forecasts and ensemble guidance, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf and make landfall along the LA coast around Wednesday evening. A low-probability tornado threat with outer-band convection should reach coastal LA by Wednesday morning. The more favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and intrusion of deeper tropical moisture (surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of south-central to southeast LA and far southeast MS/southwest AL. As the TC progresses inland and weakens Wednesday night, some broadening of the favorable SRH/surface-based buoyancy environment should spread east into the coastal FL Panhandle. The northern extent of a low-probability tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS and interior south AL Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest to the northern High Plains... A shortwave trough will progress inland from the coastal Pacific Northwest, likely reaching the northern Rockies to central Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Large-scale ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered thunderstorms across the interior Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid-level flow will remain displaced west of the shortwave trough, moderate enhancement of southwesterlies will occur ahead of it. This should be adequate for marginal updraft rotation amid weak surface-based buoyancy. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible into the early evening. Separately, isolated to widely scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms should form in the late afternoon along a lee trough towards a quasi-stationary front over the northern High Plains. Meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear within a meridional wind profile suggest sporadic severe gusts in microbursts will be the main threat. Along the immediate north of the front, a confined corridor of greater moisture/instability should be in place during the afternoon/evening, but capping will likely limit surface-based development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible into Wednesday night, but potential for severe hail appears negligible. ..Grams.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado threat associated with Tropical Cyclone Francine may approach the Louisiana Coast by early Wednesday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to be off the Northeast Coast early Tuesday morning, with continued eastward progression into the northern Atlantic expected thereafter. A relatively zonal pattern is anticipated west of this shortwave trough across the majority of the CONUS throughout much of the period. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move within this zonal flow across the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, but with minimal pattern amplification. Some amplification is expected late Tuesday/early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a strong shortwave trough approaching the coast. Surface pattern early Tuesday will feature high pressure centered over the central Appalachians and covering much of the OH Valley. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward/northeastward throughout the period. Surface troughing associated with the northern Plains shortwave trough will extend across the central Dakotas early Tuesday, before then shifting eastward throughout the day. Farther south across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, TC Francine is expected to reach hurricane strength while gradually progressing northeastward. ...TC Francine - LA Coast... Rainbands from Francine will likely spread across the northwest Gulf Coast throughout the day, but the stronger flow will remain displaced south throughout much of the period. Beginning around 06Z, the stronger flow may be far enough north to influence any deeper updrafts that develop along the LA Coast, with an attendant risk for brief tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest... Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s, is expected across the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and associated surface trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of strong buoyancy across the region, supporting a conditional severe-thunderstorm risk. However, despite moderate low-level moisture and strong daytime heating, warm mid-level temperatures are forecast to keep capping in place, precluding afternoon thunderstorm development. ...Elsewhere... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again across the eastern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies, where orographic effects and modest large-scale ascent will combine with modest moisture and buoyancy to support thunderstorm development. Increasing thunderstorm potential is anticipated late Tuesday into early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado threat associated with Tropical Cyclone Francine may approach the Louisiana Coast by early Wednesday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to be off the Northeast Coast early Tuesday morning, with continued eastward progression into the northern Atlantic expected thereafter. A relatively zonal pattern is anticipated west of this shortwave trough across the majority of the CONUS throughout much of the period. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move within this zonal flow across the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, but with minimal pattern amplification. Some amplification is expected late Tuesday/early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a strong shortwave trough approaching the coast. Surface pattern early Tuesday will feature high pressure centered over the central Appalachians and covering much of the OH Valley. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward/northeastward throughout the period. Surface troughing associated with the northern Plains shortwave trough will extend across the central Dakotas early Tuesday, before then shifting eastward throughout the day. Farther south across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, TC Francine is expected to reach hurricane strength while gradually progressing northeastward. ...TC Francine - LA Coast... Rainbands from Francine will likely spread across the northwest Gulf Coast throughout the day, but the stronger flow will remain displaced south throughout much of the period. Beginning around 06Z, the stronger flow may be far enough north to influence any deeper updrafts that develop along the LA Coast, with an attendant risk for brief tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest... Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s, is expected across the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and associated surface trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of strong buoyancy across the region, supporting a conditional severe-thunderstorm risk. However, despite moderate low-level moisture and strong daytime heating, warm mid-level temperatures are forecast to keep capping in place, precluding afternoon thunderstorm development. ...Elsewhere... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again across the eastern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies, where orographic effects and modest large-scale ascent will combine with modest moisture and buoyancy to support thunderstorm development. Increasing thunderstorm potential is anticipated late Tuesday into early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado threat associated with Tropical Cyclone Francine may approach the Louisiana Coast by early Wednesday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to be off the Northeast Coast early Tuesday morning, with continued eastward progression into the northern Atlantic expected thereafter. A relatively zonal pattern is anticipated west of this shortwave trough across the majority of the CONUS throughout much of the period. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move within this zonal flow across the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, but with minimal pattern amplification. Some amplification is expected late Tuesday/early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a strong shortwave trough approaching the coast. Surface pattern early Tuesday will feature high pressure centered over the central Appalachians and covering much of the OH Valley. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward/northeastward throughout the period. Surface troughing associated with the northern Plains shortwave trough will extend across the central Dakotas early Tuesday, before then shifting eastward throughout the day. Farther south across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, TC Francine is expected to reach hurricane strength while gradually progressing northeastward. ...TC Francine - LA Coast... Rainbands from Francine will likely spread across the northwest Gulf Coast throughout the day, but the stronger flow will remain displaced south throughout much of the period. Beginning around 06Z, the stronger flow may be far enough north to influence any deeper updrafts that develop along the LA Coast, with an attendant risk for brief tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest... Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s, is expected across the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and associated surface trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of strong buoyancy across the region, supporting a conditional severe-thunderstorm risk. However, despite moderate low-level moisture and strong daytime heating, warm mid-level temperatures are forecast to keep capping in place, precluding afternoon thunderstorm development. ...Elsewhere... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again across the eastern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies, where orographic effects and modest large-scale ascent will combine with modest moisture and buoyancy to support thunderstorm development. Increasing thunderstorm potential is anticipated late Tuesday into early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado threat associated with Tropical Cyclone Francine may approach the Louisiana Coast by early Wednesday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to be off the Northeast Coast early Tuesday morning, with continued eastward progression into the northern Atlantic expected thereafter. A relatively zonal pattern is anticipated west of this shortwave trough across the majority of the CONUS throughout much of the period. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move within this zonal flow across the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, but with minimal pattern amplification. Some amplification is expected late Tuesday/early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a strong shortwave trough approaching the coast. Surface pattern early Tuesday will feature high pressure centered over the central Appalachians and covering much of the OH Valley. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward/northeastward throughout the period. Surface troughing associated with the northern Plains shortwave trough will extend across the central Dakotas early Tuesday, before then shifting eastward throughout the day. Farther south across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, TC Francine is expected to reach hurricane strength while gradually progressing northeastward. ...TC Francine - LA Coast... Rainbands from Francine will likely spread across the northwest Gulf Coast throughout the day, but the stronger flow will remain displaced south throughout much of the period. Beginning around 06Z, the stronger flow may be far enough north to influence any deeper updrafts that develop along the LA Coast, with an attendant risk for brief tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest... Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s, is expected across the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and associated surface trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of strong buoyancy across the region, supporting a conditional severe-thunderstorm risk. However, despite moderate low-level moisture and strong daytime heating, warm mid-level temperatures are forecast to keep capping in place, precluding afternoon thunderstorm development. ...Elsewhere... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again across the eastern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies, where orographic effects and modest large-scale ascent will combine with modest moisture and buoyancy to support thunderstorm development. Increasing thunderstorm potential is anticipated late Tuesday into early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/10/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100528
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the middle part
of the week, just to the south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the latter part of the week while it moves
generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The toe of the saltwater wedge in the Mississippi River was anticipated to reach River Mile 80 above Head of Passes within the next 28 days, which triggers the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to begin building the underwater sill that will slow the movement of saltwater upstream. The sill will be located near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana. The Corps built a similar underwater sill in 1988, 1999, 2012, 2022 and 2023. US Army Corps of Engineers (Baltimore, Md.), Aug 29, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected this evening and overnight. ...01Z Update... The overall severe threat across NY continues to decrease as the airmass stabilizes. Isolated thunderstorms will continue, but the reduced severe threat merits removal of the severe probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible from the Great Basin into the central Rockies/central High Plains this evening, before expanding eastward/northeastward into the central Plains and Mid MO Valley overnight into Wednesday morning. Lastly, thunderstorms will remain possible along the Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. Highest coverage is anticipated across the TX Coast as rainbands associated TC Francine move across the region. Severe potential within these bands is expected to be very low. ..Mosier.. 09/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected this evening and overnight. ...01Z Update... The overall severe threat across NY continues to decrease as the airmass stabilizes. Isolated thunderstorms will continue, but the reduced severe threat merits removal of the severe probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible from the Great Basin into the central Rockies/central High Plains this evening, before expanding eastward/northeastward into the central Plains and Mid MO Valley overnight into Wednesday morning. Lastly, thunderstorms will remain possible along the Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. Highest coverage is anticipated across the TX Coast as rainbands associated TC Francine move across the region. Severe potential within these bands is expected to be very low. ..Mosier.. 09/10/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 9 23:59:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 9 23:59:02 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the middle part
of the week, just to the south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the latter part of the week while it moves
generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

The lack of rain has allowed water levels on the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to fall, which affects businesses that transport products via the rivers. Fishermen have found some spots inaccessible along the Ohio River. Boats can also become stuck and may be difficult to free. Lower water levels on the Ohio River may mean fewer boats visiting the Golcanda Marina. WSIL- TV ABC 3 (Carterville, Ill.), Sept 4, 2024

MD 2050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Areas affected...Western and Central New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092041Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe winds are possible with scattered thunderstorms across western and central New York. The transient and isolated nature of any severe storms will preclude watch issuance at this time. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have moved onshore from Lake Ontario into New York, where the environment is characterized by relatively modest buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear. Widespread cloudiness has limited daytime heating in the environment ahead of the convection, with surface temperatures mostly in the mid-to-upper 60s F. While shear and slight curvature of the hodograph will support transient storm organization, the overall severe wind threat will remain isolated and diminish after dark, and weather watch issuance is unlikely. ..Halbert/Gleason.. 09/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42937947 43227925 43377871 43537769 43827664 44027604 43897563 43507479 43057468 42637471 42317496 42097529 42067554 42267734 42697927 42937947 Read more

The corn maze at a ranch in Hondo was ruined by drought as the rancher’s wells did not contain enough water to support the underground drip irrigation system. Other fall festivities will still be held at the ranch from September 14 through November 23. KSAT 12 (San Antonio, Texas), Sept 9, 2024