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WW 527 TORNADO NE 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western into Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon and pose a risk for large to very large hail. The stronger storms will be supercells. The risk for tornadoes will begin late this afternoon and maximize during the evening. The risk for severe gusts will probably increase during the evening as one or two clusters possibly evolves. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Mullen NE to 10 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0529 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 529 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-089-123-137-141-147-153-163-179-183-193-200040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS NEC001-019-035-061-065-079-083-087-099-129-137-145-181-200040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FRANKLIN FURNAS HALL HARLAN HITCHCOCK KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS RED WILLOW WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 529 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 192235Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Kansas South Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense supercell storms over west-central Nebraska will track southeastward into the watch area, while other storms over northwest Kansas spread eastward. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Mccook NE to 45 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526...WW 527...WW 528... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1725 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Far east-central Colorado...northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192149Z - 192345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with a couple of clusters of supercells moving into/through northwest Kansas. A watch is possible should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in far eastern Colorado along a weak surface trough/dryline. Strong surface heating has promoted 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear increases with northern extent near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The overall environment will support at least isolated large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon. The need for a watch is uncertain in this scenario. Large-scale ascent is quite weak and dewpoint spreads at the surface are rather large. This may lead to generally outflow dominant storms that are intense for a short period. This is evident in KGLD radar imagery with storms along and south of I-70. Storms near the Nebraska border may be more organized for longer given the greater effective shear (approaching 40-45 kts). The probability of a watch is slightly higher there for that reason. Convective trends will need to be monitored over the next couple of hours. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39090008 38500086 38200187 38360239 38890277 39340289 39770229 40120153 40250010 39919984 39090008 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-192340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS NCC015-029-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-127-131-135-139- 143-145-181-183-185-192340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC003-007-011-025-029-033-036-037-041-047-049-053-057-065-073- 075-079-081-083-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-109-111-113-115- 117-119-127-133-135-137-145-147-149-159-175-177-179-181-183-193- Read more

MD 1723 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1723 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower-Missouri Valley into northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192042Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing over the lower-Missouri River Valley may intensify through early evening and pose a severe hail/wind threat. Exact storm evolution is uncertain, but watch issuance may be needed if intensification occurs. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show the development of elevated thunderstorms over far northwest MO on the eastern fringe of a plume of steeper (7-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and within a zone of focused isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. Although these storms are currently elevated, recent forecast soundings suggests that lingering MLCIN will be increasingly diminished as surface temperatures approach the low 90s. As such, it is possible that this activity gradually becomes surface based over the next 1-2 hours through peak heating and begins to fully realize the 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE environment. GOES visible imagery and derived wind products also show strong directional and speed shear across the region, which should aid in storm organization and intensification - likely into supercells with an attendant threat for severe winds and large hail - if storms can be maintained. While exact convective evolution is uncertain, watch issuance may be needed if storms begin to intensify and pose a more robust severe threat into northern MO. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39419482 39649549 39919612 40179629 40529620 40769575 40829502 40709334 40539298 40269264 39849245 39529258 39219282 39119304 39059341 39159391 39419482 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1724 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the northern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192046Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected through late afternoon. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch should eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along the northern High Plains this afternoon, where low-level lapse rates continue to steepen ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Over the next several hours, weak midlevel height falls and continued diurnal heating should support widely scattered thunderstorms which will spread eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. Around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters, capable of producing large to very large hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any supercells that evolve over eastern MT into this evening, given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature. Generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent and lingering low-level inhibition cast uncertainty on timing of convective development/maturation, though current thinking is a watch will eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Smith.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 43200293 43100352 43160400 43570466 44550579 46720726 47690780 48420792 48960766 49070729 49090504 48970465 48440418 43660252 43200293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0529 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0529 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-047-049-063-069-073-075-085-091-101-103- 111-113-115-117-149-161-171-192340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GOSPER GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1722 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... FOR EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Virginia and far northeast North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 192021Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging/severe winds will become increasingly concentrated across eastern Virginia over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A mixture of semi-discrete cells and convective clusters continue to evolve across central VA and northern NC, and have a history of sporadic wind damage and small hail. Recent GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically integrated liquid/echo top data continue to show transient, but intense, convective cores developing across the region as storms move into, or develop within, a very buoyant environment. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest MLCAPE has increased to 2000-3000 J/kg across eastern VA as temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s with low-level lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/km. The trajectories of ongoing cells and clusters suggests that storm interactions/convergence will become increasingly likely across eastern VA within this CAPE maximum over the next several hours. As this occurs, the favorable thermodynamic environment should support an uptick in storm coverage along with increasing probability for damaging downburst winds and perhaps small hail. ..Moore.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36697872 36987868 37737820 38147785 38327755 38397736 38387697 38317660 38037629 37427615 37097610 36817621 36597642 36467681 36377712 36357750 36367791 36427824 36547852 36697872 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0528 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0528 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 528 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 192210Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Southwest North Dakota Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 410 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. This activity will spread east-southeastward through the evening, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Glasgow MT to 30 miles south southeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526...WW 527... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 ..BUNTING..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-192240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS NCC015-029-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-127-131-135-139- 143-145-181-183-185-192240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC003-007-011-025-029-033-036-037-041-047-049-053-057-065-073- Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more