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WW 529 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 192235Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Kansas South Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense supercell storms over west-central Nebraska will track southeastward into the watch area, while other storms over northwest Kansas spread eastward. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Mccook NE to 45 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526...WW 527...WW 528... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Central North Carolina into eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 200117Z - 200215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe storms will continue to diminish, but a local severe threat may continue across central North Carolina through late evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have diminished across eastern portions of WW 526, and air mass stabilization continues to occur via expanding convective outflows and nocturnal cooling. Thus, the potential for any redevelopment over much of the area remains low. The exception is over central NC, where loosely-organized clusters/line segments continue to move east along an instability gradient resulting from earlier convective outflow. Here, storm organization in the presence of MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg should prove sufficient for a risk of localized stronger wind gusts for another couple of hours or so, before gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH occurs. ..Bunting.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 35877857 36137766 36977706 38217670 38147587 37817564 35807694 35287769 35147816 35107870 35407896 35727893 35877857 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 20 NNW RWI TO 35 WNW ORF TO 25 NNE NHK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-200240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS ANZ534-537-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 20 NNW RWI TO 35 WNW ORF TO 25 NNE NHK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-200240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS ANZ534-537-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 20 NNW RWI TO 35 WNW ORF TO 25 NNE NHK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-200240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS ANZ534-537-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 20 NNW RWI TO 35 WNW ORF TO 25 NNE NHK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-200240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS ANZ534-537-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 20 NNW RWI TO 35 WNW ORF TO 25 NNE NHK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-200240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS ANZ534-537-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1729 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1729 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...South-central Nebraska into far north-central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529... Valid 200005Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529 continues. SUMMARY...A narrow window for a locally greater tornado threat will exist with supercells in south-central Nebraska. An additional risk of severe/damaging winds is also possible as this activity grows upscale. DISCUSSION...Two supercells continue to move southeastward into south-central Nebraska early this evening. With low-level hodographs from KUEX showing an increase in low-level SRH over the last hour, these storms will have some potential to produce a tornado. However, that window of opportunity may be relative confined in time given the ongoing signs of upscale growth on local radar. When this occurs, a greater threat for severe/damaging wind gusts would exist. Large hail remains possible, but MRMS MESH estimates have come down as storm interaction has steadily increased. ..Wendt.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40660030 41019975 41089958 40799868 40149862 39989904 39899936 39999979 40180006 40490034 40660030 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more