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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 200 miles south of the coast of southern Mexico
have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple
of days while the system drifts slowly northeastward toward the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
middle part of the week while the system moves slowly eastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians... An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday, however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning, associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians... An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday, however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning, associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians... An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday, however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning, associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more