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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 432 FOPZ15 KNHC 262039 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 3 17(20) 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) L CARDENAS 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 53 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 263 WTPZ45 KNHC 262039 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 John has slowed its forward motion this afternoon. A scatterometer pass late this morning confirmed that the motion had slowed and the center is lingering offshore. The inner core of convection has become less pronounced and the circulation may be feeling the orographic effects of the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. However, a strong convective curved band extends in the southwest semi-circle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained fairly steady this afternoon between 65 to 75 kt. Given the current satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 65 kt. The hurricane has not been moving much since the previous advisory and the estimated motion is 325/ 2 kt. This slow motion is forecast to continue as John approaches the coastline, moving along the coast or just inland later tonight or early tomorrow. Some of the global model fields keep the system offshore near the coast a little longer. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by a high pressure ridge located over northern Mexico. The overall environment remains favorable for John to strengthen with very warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. However, John's proximity to the coastline may continue to disrupt the circulation and not allow for much additional strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows some slight strengthening over the next 12 h. Models are in fairly good agreement that steady weakening will begin Friday, with the system becoming a depression on Friday night. John has a very large rain shield, and flooding impacts will extend well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where hurricane conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area, where tropical storm conditions are ongoing or imminent. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.6N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:40:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 21:38:22 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 262038 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 102.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 330SE 270SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 102.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 102.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 102.8W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 102.8 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible until the center moves along the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause John to quickly weaken on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds to tropical storm strength are already ongoing along the coast and will continue to spread inland. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.6, -102.8 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more