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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:38:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 21:40:51 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272037 TCDEP5 Remnants Of John Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low-level center of John has dissipated. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. The monsoon trough associated with the remnants of John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Saturday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received extreme rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán. For additional information on the monsoon trough associated with the remnants of John, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272036 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF JOHN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS... 35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Remnants Of John Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 103.5W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of John were located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 103.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, the remnants of John are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 5 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally over 4 inches are expected through the remainder of today across the Mexican states of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the remnants of John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the monsoon trough associated with the remnants of John, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.5, -103.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272036 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 103.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 103.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 103.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOHN PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG TO 45 SE RZZ TO 25 SSE RIC TO 40 E RIC TO 35 SW NHK TO 40 NW AVC TO 10 SSE DAN TO 10 WNW DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-093-095-143-175-181-183-199- 550-590-620-650-680-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-272140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE FRANKLIN HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY PITTSYLVANIA SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX YORK Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG TO 45 SE RZZ TO 25 SSE RIC TO 40 E RIC TO 35 SW NHK TO 40 NW AVC TO 10 SSE DAN TO 10 WNW DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-093-095-143-175-181-183-199- 550-590-620-650-680-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-272140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE FRANKLIN HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY PITTSYLVANIA SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX YORK Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG TO 45 SE RZZ TO 25 SSE RIC TO 40 E RIC TO 35 SW NHK TO 40 NW AVC TO 10 SSE DAN TO 10 WNW DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-093-095-143-175-181-183-199- 550-590-620-650-680-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-272140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE FRANKLIN HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY PITTSYLVANIA SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX YORK Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG TO 45 SE RZZ TO 25 SSE RIC TO 40 E RIC TO 35 SW NHK TO 40 NW AVC TO 10 SSE DAN TO 10 WNW DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-093-095-143-175-181-183-199- 550-590-620-650-680-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-272140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE FRANKLIN HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY PITTSYLVANIA SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX YORK Read more