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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240555
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just inland near the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 05:54:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240554 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE JOHN JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 99.2W ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Lagunas de Chacahua and the whole Tropical Storm Warning area. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 99.2 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move further inland near the coast of southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening over the high terrain of southern Mexico is forecast now that the core of John has moved inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, the Acapulco International Airport reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the warning area for the next few hours. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the hurricane warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more