Aggregator

659
ABPZ20 KNHC 271719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression One-C, located in the central Pacific basin well
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves generally westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

Public advisories on Tropical Depression One-C are issued under WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1. Forecast
advisories on Tropical Depression One-C are issued under WMO header
WTPA21 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more