Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation, rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast... Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the morning hours. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave, though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities. Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation, rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast... Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the morning hours. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave, though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities. Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation, rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast... Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the morning hours. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave, though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities. Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation, rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast... Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the morning hours. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave, though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities. Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation, rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast... Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the morning hours. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave, though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities. Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday night. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Thunder potential appears quite limited on Friday as poor to weak mid-level lapse rates persist downstream of a positive-tilt longwave trough. Buoyancy inland appears negligible, but meager MUCAPE over the north-central Gulf may be sufficient for a thin, low-topped convective line to shift east through the day from coastal southeast LA through the FL Panhandle. Surface dew points may reach the mid 60s near the mouth of the MS River, and into the low 60s elsewhere along the coast near the cyclone track. This could be adequate for strong gusts mixing to the surface given fast flow aloft. Will maintain a thunder area to highlight this potential despite the expectation of minimal prospects for charge separation. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday night. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Thunder potential appears quite limited on Friday as poor to weak mid-level lapse rates persist downstream of a positive-tilt longwave trough. Buoyancy inland appears negligible, but meager MUCAPE over the north-central Gulf may be sufficient for a thin, low-topped convective line to shift east through the day from coastal southeast LA through the FL Panhandle. Surface dew points may reach the mid 60s near the mouth of the MS River, and into the low 60s elsewhere along the coast near the cyclone track. This could be adequate for strong gusts mixing to the surface given fast flow aloft. Will maintain a thunder area to highlight this potential despite the expectation of minimal prospects for charge separation. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday night. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Thunder potential appears quite limited on Friday as poor to weak mid-level lapse rates persist downstream of a positive-tilt longwave trough. Buoyancy inland appears negligible, but meager MUCAPE over the north-central Gulf may be sufficient for a thin, low-topped convective line to shift east through the day from coastal southeast LA through the FL Panhandle. Surface dew points may reach the mid 60s near the mouth of the MS River, and into the low 60s elsewhere along the coast near the cyclone track. This could be adequate for strong gusts mixing to the surface given fast flow aloft. Will maintain a thunder area to highlight this potential despite the expectation of minimal prospects for charge separation. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more