Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0024 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 091730Z - 092130Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area of precipitation should continue, taking it into central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection. As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location, which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected. ..Mosier.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621 31139873 31179947 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more