Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be overly conducive for lightning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be overly conducive for lightning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be overly conducive for lightning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be overly conducive for lightning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be overly conducive for lightning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more