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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 6 19:40:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will eject east/northeast toward the OH/TN Valley on Sunday. Mid/upper southwesterly flow will be increasing across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast as the trough approaches. Southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to low 60s F across the south-central states ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Given the track of the upper trough, large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced from better quality low-level moisture located over the central Gulf Coast states. Nevertheless, isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime as weak elevated instability develops due to cooling aloft. Severe potential will remain low given lack of surface-based convection and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will eject east/northeast toward the OH/TN Valley on Sunday. Mid/upper southwesterly flow will be increasing across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast as the trough approaches. Southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to low 60s F across the south-central states ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Given the track of the upper trough, large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced from better quality low-level moisture located over the central Gulf Coast states. Nevertheless, isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime as weak elevated instability develops due to cooling aloft. Severe potential will remain low given lack of surface-based convection and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will eject east/northeast toward the OH/TN Valley on Sunday. Mid/upper southwesterly flow will be increasing across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast as the trough approaches. Southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to low 60s F across the south-central states ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Given the track of the upper trough, large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced from better quality low-level moisture located over the central Gulf Coast states. Nevertheless, isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime as weak elevated instability develops due to cooling aloft. Severe potential will remain low given lack of surface-based convection and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will eject east/northeast toward the OH/TN Valley on Sunday. Mid/upper southwesterly flow will be increasing across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast as the trough approaches. Southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to low 60s F across the south-central states ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Given the track of the upper trough, large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced from better quality low-level moisture located over the central Gulf Coast states. Nevertheless, isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime as weak elevated instability develops due to cooling aloft. Severe potential will remain low given lack of surface-based convection and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will eject east/northeast toward the OH/TN Valley on Sunday. Mid/upper southwesterly flow will be increasing across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast as the trough approaches. Southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to low 60s F across the south-central states ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Given the track of the upper trough, large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced from better quality low-level moisture located over the central Gulf Coast states. Nevertheless, isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime as weak elevated instability develops due to cooling aloft. Severe potential will remain low given lack of surface-based convection and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico will shift east over the central/southern Plains on Saturday. Increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow associated with this feature will overspread much of TX toward the Lower MS Valley, aiding in northeast transport of midlevel moisture with time. At the surface, boundary layer moisture will remain scant as a stationary boundary near the TX coast precludes inland transport of Gulf moisture. Nevertheless, increasing lift associated with the approaching upper trough and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting in weak elevated instability, will support isolated thunderstorm potential across much of TX toward the Red River vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico will shift east over the central/southern Plains on Saturday. Increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow associated with this feature will overspread much of TX toward the Lower MS Valley, aiding in northeast transport of midlevel moisture with time. At the surface, boundary layer moisture will remain scant as a stationary boundary near the TX coast precludes inland transport of Gulf moisture. Nevertheless, increasing lift associated with the approaching upper trough and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting in weak elevated instability, will support isolated thunderstorm potential across much of TX toward the Red River vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico will shift east over the central/southern Plains on Saturday. Increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow associated with this feature will overspread much of TX toward the Lower MS Valley, aiding in northeast transport of midlevel moisture with time. At the surface, boundary layer moisture will remain scant as a stationary boundary near the TX coast precludes inland transport of Gulf moisture. Nevertheless, increasing lift associated with the approaching upper trough and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting in weak elevated instability, will support isolated thunderstorm potential across much of TX toward the Red River vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2024 Read more