Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

The Delaware River Basin Commission passed resolutions declaring a "water supply emergency" and issued two special permits to coordinate the operation of regional reservoirs, out-of-Basin water diversions and Delaware River flow objectives should "Basinwide drought" conditions be reached. Delaware River Basin Commission (Trenton, N.J.), Dec 5, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more