Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region, as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South... Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day, though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South. Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day convection and also with any development later Monday night. The weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may need to be considered if trends support stronger heating/destabilization than currently forecast. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region, as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South... Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day, though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South. Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day convection and also with any development later Monday night. The weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may need to be considered if trends support stronger heating/destabilization than currently forecast. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region, as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South... Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day, though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South. Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day convection and also with any development later Monday night. The weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may need to be considered if trends support stronger heating/destabilization than currently forecast. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region, as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South... Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day, though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South. Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day convection and also with any development later Monday night. The weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may need to be considered if trends support stronger heating/destabilization than currently forecast. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more