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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

Drought left the Brattleboro Ski Hill snowmaking pond with too little water to make snow. It was hoped that more rain would fall to refill the pond. Unofficial Networks (Brooklyn, N.Y.), Nov 5, 2024

All South Carolina counties were in incipient drought after a record-dry October, according to the S.C. Drought Response Committee on Nov. 6. The Sumter Item (S.C.), Nov 6, 2024