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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 9 19:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more