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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

MD 2253 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 092007Z - 100200Z SUMMARY...Wintry mixed precipitation is possible through the afternoon and evening hours across portions of eastern NY into portions of New England. Freezing rain and perhaps a bit of sleet appears likely over lower-terrain areas, with snow (perhaps up to 1 inch/hr rates) over the higher terrain. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is approaching portions of New England from the southwest, driven by appreciable low-level warm-air and moisture advection. The approach of a pronounced mid-level trough, in tandem with low-level lee troughing, will encourage continued strong deep-layer accent, which will in turn favor the maintenance of the ongoing precipitation band. Furthermore, this band is approaching a tropospheric airmass that is largely sub-freezing just above the surface (per 20Z mesoanalysis). Wintry precipitation is underway, evident via bright-banding in MRMS mosaic radar imagery, ZDR/correlation coefficient transitions with KENX regional radar data, and the KGFL ASOS reporting moderate snow. RAP forecast soundings show near-saturated vertical profiles, with 925-800 mb temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. However, current surface observations show wet bulb temperatures around or just below freezing. As such, evaporation with the onset of precipitation within the column should support enough cooling to potentially promote a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix over the lower elevations. In the higher elevations, wintry mix, dominated by snow, appears most likely. Given a saturated vertical profile, with strong 700 mb frontogenesis (driven by a well-defined 700 mb impulse overspreading the northeast) a few instances of heavier snowfall are possible. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 43407141 43157180 42977267 43037318 43257385 43327397 43747404 44327396 44607323 44567192 44237131 43837113 43407141 Read more

Sugarbush Resort would have opened in November, but did not have enough snow. On Dec. 3, a blog post noted that the snowmaking ponds were low, leading to reduced snowmaking , which delayed the opening of the ski area. Snowmaking operations ceased on Dec. 6 as pond levels went below operating levels. The resort eventually opened on Wednesday, December 4 and had 22 trails open and one lift working. Sugarbush operators were praying for rain. Unofficial Networks (Brooklyn, N.Y.), Dec 9, 2024

MD 2253 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 092007Z - 100200Z SUMMARY...Wintry mixed precipitation is possible through the afternoon and evening hours across portions of eastern NY into portions of New England. Freezing rain and perhaps a bit of sleet appears likely over lower-terrain areas, with snow (perhaps up to 1 inch/hr rates) over the higher terrain. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is approaching portions of New England from the southwest, driven by appreciable low-level warm-air and moisture advection. The approach of a pronounced mid-level trough, in tandem with low-level lee troughing, will encourage continued strong deep-layer accent, which will in turn favor the maintenance of the ongoing precipitation band. Furthermore, this band is approaching a tropospheric airmass that is largely sub-freezing just above the surface (per 20Z mesoanalysis). Wintry precipitation is underway, evident via bright-banding in MRMS mosaic radar imagery, ZDR/correlation coefficient transitions with KENX regional radar data, and the KGFL ASOS reporting moderate snow. RAP forecast soundings show near-saturated vertical profiles, with 925-800 mb temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. However, current surface observations show wet bulb temperatures around or just below freezing. As such, evaporation with the onset of precipitation within the column should support enough cooling to potentially promote a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix over the lower elevations. In the higher elevations, wintry mix, dominated by snow, appears most likely. Given a saturated vertical profile, with strong 700 mb frontogenesis (driven by a well-defined 700 mb impulse overspreading the northeast) a few instances of heavier snowfall are possible. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 43407141 43157180 42977267 43037318 43257385 43327397 43747404 44327396 44607323 44567192 44237131 43837113 43407141 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 9 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092023Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A isolated damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should remain sparse and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been intensifying along a confluence band across portions of southern LA, where a 925-850 mb moisture axis preceding an approaching low-level trough is in place. A west-southwesterly 500 mb wind maxima is overspreading the region, contributing to elongated but mainly straight hodographs (per the latest HDC VAD) and corresponding 60+ kts of effective bulk shear (most of which should be speed based). This shear, along with diurnal heating contributing up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE, will favor some organization of convective elements within the aforementioned precipitation band. Transient supercell modes are possible. 30 kts of southwesterly 850 mb flow is also approaching from the west, and this may contribute to some additional curvature to the low-level hodograph and subsequent increase in low-level shear. As such, a damaging wind gust or tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon in the evening. However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29959290 30769119 30719039 30468989 30218975 29918973 29908998 29709072 29689147 29719231 29959290 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more