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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2291 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Mississippi into western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271832Z - 272100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes will persist into the afternoon hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms persist along the MS/AL border, near the Gulf Coast, and these storms have shown some brief bouts of low-level rotation over the past several hours. Regional VADs across eastern MS into AL show gradually shrinking hodographs as the low-level jet continues to drift northeast, away from the warm sector. However, a robust mid-level trough is beginning to overspread the southern MS Valley, which may help preserve a favorable deep-layer shear field along the Gulf Coast during the afternoon. Continued surface heating may support MLCAPE approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range given mid 60s F dewpoints near the coast. Overall, storms should continue to oscillate in intensity through mid afternoon, with continued instances of low-level rotation possible. Isolated damaging gusts and tornadoes remain the main threats. The most immediate threat exists with storms approaching the Mobile Bay area. However, convection has attempted to intensify over far east-central MS with the approach of the mid-level trough. Confidence in these storms reaching severe limits is overall lower, but a stray damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms that intensify in this regime. Either way, the isolated nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30218984 31398957 32048931 32698896 33048871 33408835 33248802 32728788 32038767 31408739 30898727 30548728 30278757 30118862 30218984 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more