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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain in the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama. Most of the airmass is weakly unstable. However, the southern edge of a mid-level jet is located in the central Gulf Coast region, which is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This, combined with backed southeasterly flow at the surface and veering winds with height, could be enough for a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two with supercells that persist. The severe threat is expected to diminish as instability drops across the region. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain in the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama. Most of the airmass is weakly unstable. However, the southern edge of a mid-level jet is located in the central Gulf Coast region, which is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This, combined with backed southeasterly flow at the surface and veering winds with height, could be enough for a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two with supercells that persist. The severe threat is expected to diminish as instability drops across the region. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain in the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama. Most of the airmass is weakly unstable. However, the southern edge of a mid-level jet is located in the central Gulf Coast region, which is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This, combined with backed southeasterly flow at the surface and veering winds with height, could be enough for a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two with supercells that persist. The severe threat is expected to diminish as instability drops across the region. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain in the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama. Most of the airmass is weakly unstable. However, the southern edge of a mid-level jet is located in the central Gulf Coast region, which is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This, combined with backed southeasterly flow at the surface and veering winds with height, could be enough for a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two with supercells that persist. The severe threat is expected to diminish as instability drops across the region. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 27 22:46:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 27 22:46:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272116Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours. DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have supported sparse tornado development this afternoon despite gradually weakening low-level shear profiles. Given modest surface heating, surface temperatures have warmed to near 70 F, contributing up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis) where surface dewpoints have climbed to the upper 60s F. The best low-level moisture and dewpoints reside roughly from Jones County, MS to the Mobile Bay area, and this is where the most robust thunderstorm development (with strong low-level rotation and/or tornadoes) has occurred. Given the limited overlap of the best low-level shear and moisture, a localized tornado threat may persist for only a few more hours. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30258926 30588961 31088964 32348895 32798852 32848815 32508796 31958789 31398759 30958716 30608708 30278734 30098841 30258926 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more