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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more