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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more