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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0079 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...parts of New England and eastern NY Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090301Z - 090700Z SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour should persist into the early morning across eastern New York into parts of New England. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery and surface observations, along with recent reports, indicate multiple swaths of heavy snow are ongoing across parts of the Northeast. The most probable area for the highest rates should exist over southern New England, just to the east-northeast of the occluding transition zone between snow and sleet. OKX dual-pol radar has sampled enhanced KDP below the dendritic growth zone, indicative of heavy snow. 21Z SREF and 00Z HREF guidance support potential for 2 in/hr bursts across parts of CT/MA/RI, until enough warming near 700 mb occurs for sleet and/or mid-level drying advects into the dendritic growth layer during the early morning. Farther north, a more west/east-oriented deformation zone from Lake Ontario to the Capital District should pivot east during the next several hours. Snowfall rates in this band should more steadily hold around 1 in/hr as it spreads across southern parts of VT/NH/ME. ..Grams.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 43756998 42667047 41946973 41196992 40967253 41477340 41877393 42907461 43477457 43717386 43907156 43756998 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more