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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more