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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

MD 0095 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NORTHERN NEW YORK...
Mesoscale Discussion 0095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...Central and Northern New England...Northern New York... Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 131315Z - 131915Z SUMMARY...A mix of snow...sleet and freezing rain will move across northern New York and central New England this morning. Freezing rain rates could exceed 0.03 inches per hour in some areas. Heavy snow could develop in some areas across central and northern Maine. DISCUSSION...Heights will fall across the Northeast today, as a mid-level trough approaches from the west. Several areas of precipitation are ongoing in the Northeast. This is being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, and by strong low-level jet currently located in northern New York. At the surface, a strong thermal gradient is present with temperatures in New England ranging from the lower to mid 30s F over southern and central New England, and teens to single digits over central and northern Maine. In association with the low-level jet, a nose of warm air aloft is evident on forecast and observed soundings. This warm nose, with temperatures of 2 to 5 C, will favor a mixed precipitation type from northern New York eastward across northern New England into southern Maine. Freezing rain within this zone could exceed 0.03 inches per hour within the heavier pockets of precipitation. To the north of the zone, air aloft will be cold enough for snow. Localized heavy snow will be possible, mainly across parts of central and northern Maine. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44216782 43886861 43527018 43457088 43417268 43497421 43767494 44147511 44597496 44977427 45107266 45357144 45887047 46986980 47376910 47356841 47006779 46346747 45656709 45276698 44926701 44676721 44216782 Read more