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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more