Aggregator

MD 0172 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana into southwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 142127Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours across eastern Louisiana to southwest Mississippi as thunderstorms develop and intensify over the region. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible and IR imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown at least two early attempts at convective initiation across the Alexandria, LA area. Residual capping over the region is likely limited storm initiation in the short term, but a combination of continued low-level ascent within a subtle confluence axis and glancing ascent from the primary synoptic wave to the north (enhanced by a weak shortwave trough noted in low-level water-vapor imagery and 700 mb analyses) should continue to promote isolated to scattered discrete convection in the coming hours. Intensification/organization into robust supercells appears probable as convection moves into an environment characterized by surface-based lifted indices between -8 to -9 C across eastern LA into southwest MS. Veering winds through the lowest 1-2 km sampled in recent KDGX and KHDC VWP observations are expected to strengthen through the late afternoon/early evening as the low-level jet axis strengthens and shifts east. Consequently, a tornado threat is likely emerging downstream and will require watch issuance. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30889275 31989217 32989143 33179110 33249062 33159027 32889001 32488993 32088998 31559034 31169078 30819140 30649188 30619221 30659248 30719278 30889275 Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-043-059-063-065-067-081-089-093-109- 131-141-143-147-149-167-189-191-193-195-142340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY CLAYTON DICKINSON EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH MNC013-039-043-045-047-055-063-091-099-109-147-161-165-169- 142340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON JACKSON MARTIN MOWER Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-043-059-063-065-067-081-089-093-109- 131-141-143-147-149-167-189-191-193-195-142340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY CLAYTON DICKINSON EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH MNC013-039-043-045-047-055-063-091-099-109-147-161-165-169- 142340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON JACKSON MARTIN MOWER Read more

WW 34 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 142240Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 34 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa South-Central and Southeast Minnesota Far Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across Iowa will continue to spread northward/northeastward over the next few hours. The environment is expected to remain supportive of large hail and strong/damaging wind gusts across northern Iowa, south-central/southeast Minnesota, and far southwest Wisconsin throughout the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Worthington MN to 45 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW UMN TO 25 WNW SGF TO 35 S SZL TO 15 NW CDJ TO 30 ESE SDA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-057-061-081-109-209-227-142340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY DADE DAVIESS HARRISON LAWRENCE STONE WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW UMN TO 25 WNW SGF TO 35 S SZL TO 15 NW CDJ TO 30 ESE SDA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-057-061-081-109-209-227-142340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY DADE DAVIESS HARRISON LAWRENCE STONE WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 30 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 141915Z - 150000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 30 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly develop and move north-northeastward across eastern Kansas into western Missouri this afternoon. Widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely with this initial activity, along with some hail if supercells can become established. The tornado threat should remain fairly low for the next couple of hours, but a tornado or two may occur later with eastward extent towards central Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles south southwest of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22055. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW LWD TO 25 E SDA TO 15 S OMA TO 25 S OLU. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-039-047-049-051- 053-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-091-099-117-121-123-125-127-133- 135-151-153-155-157-159-161-165-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187- 197-142340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON HUMBOLDT JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONONA MONROE POCAHONTAS POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW LWD TO 25 E SDA TO 15 S OMA TO 25 S OLU. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-039-047-049-051- 053-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-091-099-117-121-123-125-127-133- 135-151-153-155-157-159-161-165-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187- 197-142340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON HUMBOLDT JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONONA MONROE POCAHONTAS POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 31 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 142020Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread rapidly north-northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for widespread severe/damaging winds. The strongest wind gusts could reach 80-90 mph on an isolated basis. Some hail and perhaps a tornado could also occur if a supercell can form and be sustained later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Lincoln NE to 50 miles north of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19055. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-023-029-045-047-049-063-065-071-083-087-089-101- 115-129-135-137-141-145-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE ILC001-009-013-061-083-117-119-133-149-157-163-142340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-023-029-045-047-049-063-065-071-083-087-089-101- 115-129-135-137-141-145-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE ILC001-009-013-061-083-117-119-133-149-157-163-142340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR Read more

WW 32 TORNADO AR IL MO 142100Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Western Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will move very quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. Widespread severe/damaging winds are the main threat this afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching up to 80-90 mph. The tornado and large hail threat is expected to increase later this evening, with sustained supercells potentially posing a threat for multiple strong tornadoes as moisture returns northward across Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 15 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22055. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-021-025-029-033-035-037-039-041-043-049-059-063-065- 067-073-077-079-083-091-097-105-107-117-121-123-125-127- 142340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA WINN Read more

WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-021-025-029-033-035-037-039-041-043-049-059-063-065- 067-073-077-079-083-091-097-105-107-117-121-123-125-127- 142340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA WINN Read more

WW 33 TORNADO AR LA MS 142200Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 33 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast Arkansas Eastern and Northeastern Louisiana Western and Southwestern Mississippi * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon and evening within the strongly shear and unstable environment across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Environmental conditions are favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south southeast of Alexandria LA to 25 miles northwest of Greenwood MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31...WW 32... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0171 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of northwestern and north central Arkansas into central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142040Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Further intensification of a broken squall line with embedded supercells appears likely into the 6-7 PM CDT time frame, accompanied by increasing risk for very strong, damaging surface gusts and/or a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Surface dew points have mixed into the 30s F across much of central Missouri, between the I-44 and I-70 corridors. However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that the nose of a plume of precipitable water on the order of .75-1.00+ inches is now nosing across central Arkansas toward the southern Missouri state border vicinity, where a notable recent increase in surface dew points is underway. This includes surface dew points in the lower/mid 50s F, which Rapid Refresh forecast soundings have been indicating rapidly return northward, just ahead of the approaching squall line into early evening. Although the same forecast soundings suggest that this may tend to coincide with the transition to a more linear low-level hodograph, low-level shear is forecast to remain strong to extreme beneath 850 flow strengthening to 50+ kt. This environment may still become increasingly conducive to supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and/or very strong, damaging gusts, in addition to large hail. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 39179241 38549186 37709199 35589331 35219431 37549364 38329340 39129293 39179241 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Sunday, Southwest Texas... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies Sunday, aiding in gusty northwesterly flow into western Texas. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday across portions of southwestern Texas from the Permian Basin south to the Edwards Plateau and into south-central Texas. Northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph, gusting around 20-30 mph) will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Fuels in this region are very supportive of fire spread, however, winds may hover just below Critical criteria supporting the addition of a 40 percent delineation. ...D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D4 Monday - D5 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the D1 and D2 period and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. 40-70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. ...D6-D7 Wednesday/Thursday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D6 Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry with slow moisture return late D7/Thursday into D8/Friday. 40 percent probabilities were extended southward across the Rio Grande Valley for both days with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Sunday, Southwest Texas... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies Sunday, aiding in gusty northwesterly flow into western Texas. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday across portions of southwestern Texas from the Permian Basin south to the Edwards Plateau and into south-central Texas. Northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph, gusting around 20-30 mph) will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Fuels in this region are very supportive of fire spread, however, winds may hover just below Critical criteria supporting the addition of a 40 percent delineation. ...D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D4 Monday - D5 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the D1 and D2 period and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. 40-70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. ...D6-D7 Wednesday/Thursday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D6 Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry with slow moisture return late D7/Thursday into D8/Friday. 40 percent probabilities were extended southward across the Rio Grande Valley for both days with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Sunday, Southwest Texas... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies Sunday, aiding in gusty northwesterly flow into western Texas. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday across portions of southwestern Texas from the Permian Basin south to the Edwards Plateau and into south-central Texas. Northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph, gusting around 20-30 mph) will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Fuels in this region are very supportive of fire spread, however, winds may hover just below Critical criteria supporting the addition of a 40 percent delineation. ...D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D4 Monday - D5 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the D1 and D2 period and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. 40-70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. ...D6-D7 Wednesday/Thursday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D6 Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry with slow moisture return late D7/Thursday into D8/Friday. 40 percent probabilities were extended southward across the Rio Grande Valley for both days with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more