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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

MD 0190 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 36...38... FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Northeast and east central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...38... Valid 150549Z - 150715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36, 38 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for strong-intense (EF2-EF3+) tornadoes will persist with a supercell cluster moving into northeast Mississippi, while new supercell development is possible into east central Mississippi. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is approaching the southern tier of counties in PDS tornado watch #36 across northeast MS. This storm is located in the open warm sector in a zone of low-level moisture advection and strong low-level shear with large, curved hodographs per regional VWP time series. The potential for strong-intense tornadoes will persist with this cluster for the next 1-2 hours. Farther south, thunderstorms are developing in the warm advection zone along the east edge of the richer moisture into east central MS. One or two supercells could emerge from this developing convection and pose a tornado threat in the next few hours. For this reason, a local eastward extension of tornado watch #38 will need to be considered by 06-07z. ..Thompson.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33958821 32888837 32398870 32168923 32218962 32658955 33408950 33878969 34368943 34708905 34808847 34668815 33958821 Read more

MD 0188 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 36... FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...southern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...southeastern Missouri...western Kentucky...western Tennessee...eastern Arkansas...and northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 36... Valid 150450Z - 150645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk is spreading eastward into Tornado Watch 36. A few strong tornadoes are possible. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band comprised of numerous supercell storms, extending from southern Illinois/southeastern Missouri southwestward into southwestern Arkansas. Sustained rotational signatures have persisted with several of these storms, as they move through an axis of 1500 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s across this area. With very strong flow present across the region, that veers with height, these kinematically favorable conditions suggest continuation of the tornado risk as storms move through the instability axis ahead of the surface front. A few of the tornadoes could be strong/potentially significant over the next few hours, as they spread eastward toward/across the Mississippi River. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 34109110 35509090 38368940 38298720 35548806 34118869 34109110 Read more

WW 0041 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0041 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MVN TO 35 S MTO TO 20 WSW HUF TO 5 SSE DNV TO 45 N DNV TO 35 ESE MMO. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC025-033-079-101-159-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-119-121-133-153-157-165-167- 171-150740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-069-073-079- 099-103-139-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-123-150740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 36 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 150030Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 36 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Far Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM until 300 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch area over the next several hours. Environmental conditions are very favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. If storms can remain discrete, potential exists for a few long-track tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0187 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 36...38... FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...southern Arkansas...far northern Louisiana...and into northern and western Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...38... Valid 150439Z - 150615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36, 38 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk is evolving across portions of southern Arkansas, far northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of supercells moving eastward across Arkansas at this time, several with ongoing/strong circulations evident. The southern portion of this band -- over southern Arkansas -- will continue moving eastward across northwestern portions of Tornado Watch 38. Meanwhile farther east, a supercell is crossing southern Leflore County in west-central Mississippi, which is also exhibiting low-level rotation. Meanwhile, other/weaker convection is evolving south of this storm, where CAMs suggest potential for an increase in severe-storm potential over the next couple of hours. Given the favorable environment (both kinematically and thermodynamically), expect risk to continue across portions of WW 38 for several hours across this region. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33949290 34289258 34438971 34068862 33138940 32058982 32109123 33269371 33949290 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more