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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

MD 0238 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 56... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 56... Valid 170316Z - 170515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may still occur over the area, though the probability is currently low. DISCUSSION...Earlier bursts of convection which produced large hail over central NC and rotation over southeast NC have diminished, though areas of showers and thunderstorms persist. Dewpoints are largely in the mid 60s, which is still resulting in MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg in pockets. As the upper trough and associated cold front continue east, some increase in convection may yet occur due to cooling aloft atop the moist air mass. Deep-layer shear remains strong, and low-level shear with winds veering with height is still conditionally favorable for rotating storms and brief tornado risk. If an uptick in storm strength does not occur prior to 05Z, the watch will likely be allowed to expire. ..Jewell.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35287966 36107891 36737850 37307825 37757794 37847739 37697677 37327639 36647613 35897620 35177651 34747697 34607756 34647847 34767942 34927978 35287966 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW FLO TO 25 NNW SOP TO 20 W RDU TO 25 ESE DAN TO 40 E LYH TO 10 ESE CHO. ..JEWELL..03/17/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-037-049-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-091-093- 101-103-105-107-117-125-127-131-133-135-147-153-163-165-181-183- 185-191-195-170340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PITT RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-036-041-049-053-065-075-081-087-111-117-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-570-595-620-670-730-760-170340- VA Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW FLO TO 25 NNW SOP TO 20 W RDU TO 25 ESE DAN TO 40 E LYH TO 10 ESE CHO. ..JEWELL..03/17/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-037-049-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-091-093- 101-103-105-107-117-125-127-131-133-135-147-153-163-165-181-183- 185-191-195-170340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PITT RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-036-041-049-053-065-075-081-087-111-117-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-570-595-620-670-730-760-170340- VA Read more

WW 56 TORNADO NC VA 162340Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CLT TO 35 WNW SOP TO 35 SSE GSO TO 20 SW DAN TO 20 NNW DAN TO 20 N LYH. ..JEWELL..03/17/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-033-037-049-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085- 091-093-101-103-105-107-117-123-125-127-131-133-135-145-147-151- 153-157-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-170240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE CASWELL CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PERSON PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-036-037-041-049-053-065-075-081-083-087- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more