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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more