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Conditions continued to be very dry across the South Plains. Temperatures were milder following triple-digit temperatures the previous week. Farmers were irrigating to keep cotton fields going as plants sets bolls. Dryland cotton was starting to decline with no precipitation. Early summer rains have corn fields in good condition overall. Control applications for lygus and aphids were occurring as threshold levels were reached. Pastures needed rain for forage growth. Livestock were in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 12, 2025

Conditions were hot and dry, and all of West Central Texas needed rain. Temperatures were in the mid-90s to 100-plus degrees daily. Topsoil moisture was declining quickly. River bottoms continued to dry and become more accessible. Producers were cleaning debris and rebuilding fences. Hay producers were cutting and baling, and yields were expected to be good, but quality may be lower due to maturity of fields. Burn bans were in effect for some counties. Sheep and goat producers were treating internal parasites due to wet July conditions. Some field preparations for fall planting of small grains was underway. All row crops showed moisture and heat stress. Cotton and grain sorghum mostly looked fair to good. Many cotton fields need moisture soon. Sorghum was maturing quickly with harvest underway in earlier planted fields. Pasture and rangeland growth slowed. Grasshoppers were becoming a problem in some pastures. Livestock were in fair to good condition, and water sources were in good shape. Cattle gains were slowing due to declining forages and heat. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 12, 2025 Hot and dry conditions prevailed in most West Central Texas counties, and some burn bans were enacted. Menard County was an exception, receiving around 8 inches of rain over the past 20 days. High winds significantly impacted moisture conditions. Most wheat harvest was finished. Planted cotton was progressing but showed signs of heat and moisture stress. Corn was maturing. Early planted grain sorghum was coloring and the later-planted fields struggled in the heat. Pecan progress continued. Weeds were abundant and producers were spraying cropland. The majority of the first hay cuttings were baled, with some producers starting a second cutting. Some hay grazer was cut. Pasture forages were drying out quickly but still looked good. Cattle continued to look good. Stock tank levels were a mixed bag with some near full and others that never caught any runoff were low. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 1, 2025

Hot, dry conditions persisted across Far West Texas with impacts visible across agriculture. Fields have become very dry, and crops were showing stress by midday. Corn was finishing and drying down for harvest. Sorghum had mostly headed out, and diminished yields were expected. High temperatures significantly stressed the cotton crop, especially the earlier crop that was loaded with bolls or in peak bloom. Haygrazer had headed out. Healthy melon harvests continued. Pastures were drying up, and livestock were losing condition despite supplementation. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 12, 2025 Hot and dry conditions were observed across Far West Texas. Temperatures were above average, especially at night, which hurt overnight crop recovery. High winds persisted, further drying out cropland and rangeland despite some shower activity moving through areas. Crop adjusters were traveling throughout the region to assess noted negative impacts on cotton, corn and sorghum. Pecans and hay crops were doing well for the time being. Melons were being harvested just ahead of schedule. Soil moisture was depleted, and pastures continued to dry out, requiring more hay and supplementation for livestock. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 1, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, with gusty winds, may linger this evening across portions of the Midwest. ...01z Update... Boundary-layer cooling is expected to further weaken convection after sunset this evening. Across most of the CONUS, updraft intensity has gradually waned over the last few hours, with only a few robust storms lingering along a corridor from northern IN into southeast lower MI. Lapse rates are not particularly steep across the Midwest with roughly 6.3 C/km value noted on the DTX sounding this evening. While parameters do not appear particularly favorable for severe, a few robust updrafts will likely continue, partially aided by approaching upper trough. Locally gusty winds would be the primary concern, but overall the severe risk appears too low to warrant MRGL Risk the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, with gusty winds, may linger this evening across portions of the Midwest. ...01z Update... Boundary-layer cooling is expected to further weaken convection after sunset this evening. Across most of the CONUS, updraft intensity has gradually waned over the last few hours, with only a few robust storms lingering along a corridor from northern IN into southeast lower MI. Lapse rates are not particularly steep across the Midwest with roughly 6.3 C/km value noted on the DTX sounding this evening. While parameters do not appear particularly favorable for severe, a few robust updrafts will likely continue, partially aided by approaching upper trough. Locally gusty winds would be the primary concern, but overall the severe risk appears too low to warrant MRGL Risk the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, with gusty winds, may linger this evening across portions of the Midwest. ...01z Update... Boundary-layer cooling is expected to further weaken convection after sunset this evening. Across most of the CONUS, updraft intensity has gradually waned over the last few hours, with only a few robust storms lingering along a corridor from northern IN into southeast lower MI. Lapse rates are not particularly steep across the Midwest with roughly 6.3 C/km value noted on the DTX sounding this evening. While parameters do not appear particularly favorable for severe, a few robust updrafts will likely continue, partially aided by approaching upper trough. Locally gusty winds would be the primary concern, but overall the severe risk appears too low to warrant MRGL Risk the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 12 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...FAR NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Areas affected...Southern/eastern Lower MI...northern IN...far northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122159Z - 130000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...A band of convection has gradually intensified over the last 1-2 hours across parts of central/southern Lower MI, with a more isolated discrete cell moving along a quasi-stationary surface boundary across southeast Lower MI. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, relatively strong heating and rich moisture has allowed MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range downstream of the ongoing convection. Deep-layer flow is relatively modest, though 20-30 kts of unidirectional southwesterly flow aloft (as noted on recent VWPs from KGRR) may allow for some continued storm clustering with time. A threat for locally damaging wind will spread eastward with this convection this evening, especially where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurred this afternoon. Backed surface winds near/north of the boundary across southeast lower MI will locally enhance effective shear/SRH, and a transient supercell or two with marginal hail potential cannot be ruled out as well. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 43318444 44328369 44048260 42778225 42168269 41908342 41408484 40858679 41398665 43318444 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

694
ABPZ20 KNHC 122333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the subtropical Central Pacific well to
the north-northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122151Z - 122345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing across eastern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of lower Michigan may intensify through early evening and pose risk for large hail and/or damaging winds. However, this threat should remain too limited for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to percolate along a diffuse frontal zone from the U.P. of lower Michigan into central WI. At least one maturing cell across the U.P. appears to be developing a mid-level mesocyclone, which is indicative of strong shear (estimated to be around 30-35 knots of effective BWD) over the region and adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Developing cells to the southwest along the front are also showing some signs of deeper development/intensification, though this has been a slow process over the past hour. The sluggish growth during peak heating is likely due to somewhat weak low-level ascent along the front, as suggested by only a modest surface wind shift and a diffuse cross-frontal temperature gradient across WI. With the onset of nocturnal cooling coming in a few hours and with the front/convection moving towards the Lake Michigan shore, the spatial and temporal window for an appreciable severe threat may be limited. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic and kinematic environment across the region will remain favorable for organized storms, including a supercell or two, for the next few hours with an attendant threat for severe hail and damaging winds. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43318785 43218814 43218856 43278906 43388945 43778968 44098973 44348966 44658913 45058867 45748795 46348710 46498668 46628627 46678585 46748535 46748507 46678481 46558461 46348448 46138444 45818473 45778497 45858517 45898550 45848599 45758622 45568650 45248677 44948706 44718720 44378738 43938752 43688759 43318785 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Thursday before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D6/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially across northern Arizona. On the fringe of the deeper moisture surge further north, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and central Utah D3/Thursday. This will spread further into Wyoming on D4/Friday. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D3-D5 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ..Thornton.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN IL...WESTERN/NORTHERN IN...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Areas affected...southern/eastern IL...western/northern IN...southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121944Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts of 45-60 mph and generally small hail to 1 inch in diameter will be possible with a broken band of thunderstorms slowly progressing from Illinois into parts of Indiana and Lower Michigan. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Along a band of low-level confluence, thunderstorms have become increasingly numerous from southeast MO into southwest Lower MI. With surface temperatures of 86-91 F common ahead of this activity, to the west/north of separate convective outflow in central IN, potential for sporadic downbursts exists amid weak lower-level flow. Area VWP data indicate 0-6 km shear around 20 kts across IL into IN, to around 25 kts in southwest Lower MI. Speed change with height is largely concentrated in the mid to upper portion of the buoyancy profile. This suggests small to marginally severe hail may accompany the strongest updrafts. Loose multicell clustering may support a localized, marginal severe wind threat. Based on latest trends, this could be centered in corridors across the IL/IN/MI border area with ongoing storms near/south of Chicagoland and separately to the east-northeast of storms near/east of St. Louis. ..Grams/Smith.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 42588622 42818602 42838532 42298496 41578551 40638690 38888858 38738939 38868968 39388949 40258868 41058804 41728729 41918683 42358633 42588622 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more