National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Although this disturbance is not showing any signs of
development at this time, environmental conditions could become
a little more conducive for some development in the central Pacific
well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days. The system
is forecast to move slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 02:33:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 03:31:10 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 885 WTPZ45 KNHC 230232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Visible satellite pictures show that the center of Ivo has become exposed to the northeast of the deep convection due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. Although the latest Dvorak T-numbers have decreased slightly, the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and recent UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates. Overnight scatterometer data should provide a better assessment of Ivo's intensity. Guidance suggests that the shear is likely to remain moderate to strong during the next 12-18 hours while Ivo traverses warm waters. The shear could relax Friday night, but by that time the cyclone is forecast to move over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. As a result, little overall change in strength is anticipated during the next day or so. After that time, Ivo should weaken as it moves over SSTs below 26C and into a stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipate by day 5. Ivo has turned sharply today, with the initial motion now north-northwestward or 335/8 kt. The storm is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge. The latest track envelope has shifted eastward, partially due to the sharper turn and the more eastward initial position. This has resulted in a slightly eastward shift in the official forecast, but it remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.9N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.5N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 21.2N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 26.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 28.5N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 74 15(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 22 22(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 6 44(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...IVO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 16.9, -114.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located a little less than 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could
become conducive for some development, in a few days, in the central
Pacific basin, well to the east of Hawaii, while the system is
moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 21:31:08 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Visible satellite images show a bit of a surprise with Ivo this afternoon. The system is not as well organized as earlier microwave data displayed, with the center almost partially exposed on the northeastern side of the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is in line with TAFB/SAB estimates and 50-55 kt ASCAT-C winds. With shear still forecast to increase overnight, only slight intensification of Ivo is anticipated. While Ivo could still become a hurricane, almost all of the guidance has backed off on this cycle. Weakening should begin over the weekend when the storm moves over progressive cooler waters. Convection is likely to dissipate in about 72 hours, and post-tropical status of Ivo is forecast at that time. Overall the new forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Ivo has turned west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. The storm should turn to the northwest tomorrow and north-northwest on Saturday due to steering from a mid-level ridge over Mexico. Model guidance is coming into better agreement on this course, with fairly small variations. Overall, the small eastward trend seen in the guidance continues, and the new NHC prediction is shifted a little eastward at long range. Still, none of the guidance still show a direct tropical cyclone threat to Mexico at this time. It is worth noting that the current size of Ivo has been greatly increased due to the ASCAT-C data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 19 48(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA CLARION 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 3 18(21) 15(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 2(31) X(31) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...IVO TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 114.1W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 114.1 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and Ivo is forecast to turn to the northwest on Friday and move north-northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday with weakening likely to begin on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...IVO TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 16.1, -114.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 114.1W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 114.1W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Environmental conditions could become conducive for some
development in a few days in the central Pacific basin, well to the
east of Hawaii, while the system is moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 377 WTPZ45 KNHC 221440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cyclone continues to gradually improve in organization. Microwave data show that there is a small eye trying to form beneath Ivo's small central dense overcast, and satellite intensity estimates are rising. Consequently, the initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, which matches the TAFB/SAB fixes. Further strengthening is anticipated in the short term since Ivo has a developing inner core and is over very warm waters with moderate shear. The models are pretty consistent about showing an increase in shear by tomorrow while the cyclone turns to the northwest. Thus the intensity forecast is leveled off at that time, then a slow weakening is shown beyond 36 h as Ivo begins its inevitable decline over cooler eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air. Remnant low status is anticipated just after 72 h since Ivo will be over 23C or cooler waters by then. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast except for a small rise at 12 h to account for the recent initial intensity increase. Similar to many eastern Pacific cyclones this year, the center has re-formed a bit to the south in the central dense overcast, yielding an initial motion of 270/10. The storm should turn northwestward tomorrow due to an upper-level trough dropping over the eastern Pacific south of California, which helps erode a mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico. The ridge stays weak through the weekend, causing Ivo to move north-northwestward until dissipation. The eastward model trend at long range continues, so the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. It should be noted that none of the guidance still show a direct threat to Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 226 FOPZ15 KNHC 221440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 25(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 7(33) X(33) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 765 WTPZ35 KNHC 221439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...IVO STRENGTHENING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 113.6W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 113.6 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn to the northwest is expected by tomorrow. Ivo is anticipated to move generally north-northwestward this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo could become a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow, but should begin to weaken on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...IVO STRENGTHENING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 15.7, -113.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 14:40:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 15:31:19 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far southwestern
eastern Pacific about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are associated with a surface trough. Environmental
conditions could become marginally conducive for development in a
few days when the system is in the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Blake