National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251701
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ivo, located about 500 miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:35:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:31:16 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251433 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents, and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 117.4W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 117.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 25.5, -117.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Ivo, located several hundred miles
west-northwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely while the
system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo has been basically devoid of deep convection since about 0300 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. A pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, which makes Ivo a tropical depression. Ivo is currently over 24 degree C SSTs and in a dry and stable environment. Since these conditions are expected to become even more hostile during the next couple of days, Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate within a couple of days. The depression is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A slight turn to the north with a notable decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two while the shallow cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Even though Ivo is weakening, swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 08:39:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 09:31:12 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 117.0W ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 117.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 24.5, -117.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250542
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system appears unlikely while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 02:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 03:31:18 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated. However, with the degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a more stable environment. Thus weakening should occur overnight, and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north- northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The cyclone should decelerate and turn northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated swells that are now reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...IVO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOON... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 23.4, -116.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN