National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 700 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 027 WTNT65 KNHC 021055 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 700 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BATTERING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.7, -78.2 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 10:12:15 GMT

Issued at 600 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 020955 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 600 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg

...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 6:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.7, -78.2 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 09:54:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 08:53:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 08:53:31 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020852 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The initial intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This lowering of intensity is consistent with the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days, Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will likely result in weakening. However it is anticipated that the system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several days. The official intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model consensus. Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye. 2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States into Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 26.6N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 020851 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 15(41) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 4(30) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 20(70) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 14(40) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 2(37) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 8(59) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 5(25) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 51(62) 9(71) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 8(42) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 52(64) 7(71) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 8(42) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) 4(62) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 48(60) 3(63) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 41(75) 1(76) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) 1(49) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 27(42) 1(43) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 16(29) X(29) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 44(65) 2(67) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 1(32) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 33(76) 2(78) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 35(46) X(46) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 35(70) X(70) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) X(36) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 42(47) 24(71) 1(72) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 43(49) 15(64) X(64) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) 1(28) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 9(24) X(24) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 40(48) 11(59) X(59) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) X(22) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 19(24) 41(65) 4(69) X(69) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) 1(29) X(29) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 26(35) 4(39) X(39) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 2( 4) 9(13) 36(49) 37(86) 2(88) X(88) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) 2(53) X(53) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 2(27) X(27) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 37(63) 2(65) X(65) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) 20(44) 3(47) X(47) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 25(29) 41(70) 16(86) 1(87) X(87) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 20(51) 1(52) X(52) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) THE VILLAGES 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 24(37) 14(51) 1(52) X(52) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 2 6( 8) 35(43) 24(67) 8(75) 1(76) X(76) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 10 44(54) 36(90) 7(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 5( 6) 41(47) 28(75) 6(81) X(81) X(81) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 7(54) X(54) X(54) PATRICK AFB 34 4 25(29) 47(76) 16(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) PATRICK AFB 50 1 1( 2) 30(32) 27(59) 6(65) X(65) X(65) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 63 27(90) 9(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 29(31) 43(74) 10(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 6( 7) 34(41) 12(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) W PALM BEACH 34 89 9(98) 1(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 13 41(54) 17(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) W PALM BEACH 64 1 13(14) 15(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) FT LAUDERDALE 34 71 20(91) 3(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) FT LAUDERDALE 50 5 22(27) 8(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) FT LAUDERDALE 64 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 14 25(39) 7(46) 3(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) MIAMI FL 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 4 14(18) 6(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 3( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 15(25) 16(41) 2(43) X(43) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 64 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 28 13(41) 3(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 08:52:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.2W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020850 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND ELEUTHERA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND...IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. * JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 78.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 020755 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 400 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...DORIAN DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...PARTS OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BEING LASHED INCESSANTLY WITH DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -78.2 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 007 WTNT65 KNHC 020656 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...DORIAN'S EYE CRAWLING WESTWARD OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH...275 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg

...DORIAN'S EYE CRAWLING WESTWARD OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 3:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -78.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 170 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020552
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over eastern Grand Bahama Island.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression
to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly
westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this
morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the
week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible
over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020552 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur during the next couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -78.1 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 175 mph.