National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 38.8, -69.1 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070523
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located offshore of the New England coast, and on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while the system moves westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:56:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 03:24:48 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070249 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 During the past couple of hours Dorian's eye has become no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery. Microwave data shows an eye-like feature just to the south of the convection, and also indicates that the hurricane is becoming asymmetric. The lack of symmetry is the first indication or hint that Dorian is slowly beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The rain shield is now placed to the northwest of the center, and the wind field is expanding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak numbers are either steady or have decreased slightly, and consequently the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt in this advisory. The hurricane is rapidly reaching cooler waters and guidance shows an area of significantly strong shear along the forecast path of Dorian. Given these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual weakening, but Dorian is still expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia with hurricane intensity late Saturday. Dorian is forecast to complete its transition to extratropical once it crosses Nova Scotia. The hurricane is racing northeastward or 045 degrees at 22 kt. Since Dorian is already embedded within a fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, the current northeast heading should continue until dissipation occurs in about 3 days, if not sooner. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 38.3N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 070249 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 10(10) 52(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X 19(19) 71(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 94(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 39(39) 32(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) EDDY POINT NS 64 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SYDNEY NS 34 X 63(63) 30(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SYDNEY NS 50 X 5( 5) 36(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 65(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 2 97(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 X 84(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HALIFAX NS 64 X 45(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) YARMOUTH NS 34 16 72(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) YARMOUTH NS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X 55(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MONCTON NB 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 2 41(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ST JOHN NB 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 2 20(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BAR HARBOR ME 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 34 33 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PROVIDENCE RI 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 070248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 70.2W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect from Lower East Pubnico eastward around Nova Scotia to Avonport, and the tropical storm warning is effect from Tidnish to Brule and from Fundy National Park to Shediac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico. * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Parson's Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to move over Nova Scotia with hurricane force winds. Thereafter, Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 the center of Dorian was located near 38.3, -70.2 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 070248 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADJUSTED THE WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO EASTWARD AROUND NOVA SCOTIA TO AVONPORT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FROM TIDNISH TO BRULE AND FROM FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO AVONPORT A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO. * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS * SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA * NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PARSON'S POND TO TRITON * INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONE'S COVE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 400SE 300SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...340NE 280SE 240SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:35:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 03:31:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070233 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection has persisted mainly over the northern semicircle of Gabrielle since this afternoon, but has been trying to move a little closer to the low-level center. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB suggests slight strengthening has occurred since the previous advisory, and a recent scatterometer pass measured a cluster of 45-kt winds. Assuming some slight undersampling in that area by the scatterometer, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The shear that continues to impact Gabrielle is forecast to decrease through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the cyclone will me moving over waters near 29 C. And, although some dry air will continue to surround the circulation, the cyclone should be able to gradually strengthen over the next few days due to the other favorable environmental conditions. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs will cause the cyclone to weaken. An approaching mid-latitude trough, courtesy of Dorian, will help transition Gabrielle to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The only notable change to the intensity forecast from the previous advisory was to make Gabrielle a hurricane a little earlier, and the official advisory is very near the corrected consensus HCCA. Gabrielle has been moving to the northwest, or 320/16 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur on Saturday as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle builds westward. The aforementioned mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north on Sunday night, then accelerate the cyclone to the northeast from Monday through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 29.3N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 070233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 40.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 40.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...GABRIELLE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 40.9W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 40.9 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Saturday. A turn to the north is then forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...GABRIELLE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 6 the center of Gabrielle was located near 29.3, -40.9 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 the center of Dorian was located near 37.4, -71.6 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 062350 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 54A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 71.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Fenwick Island DE, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Parson's Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusts of tropical-storm-force could still occur over portions of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states, but these winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the North Carolina coast will continue to recede throughout the evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 23:53:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 21:24:51 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062305
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast, and on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, about 1000 miles southwest of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Little development, if any, of this disturbance is expected for the
next couple of days, but environmental conditions are likely to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles
northeast of the Leeward Islands are associated with a trough of
low pressure. Significant development of this system is not
expected during the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 062104 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 30(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 52(52) 20(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 80(80) 11(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 23(23) 30(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 6( 6) 86(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) 84(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 25(25) 34(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 63(63) 37(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 X 3( 3) 87(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 94(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 66(66) 7(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) YARMOUTH NS 64 X 23(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MONCTON NB 34 X 8( 8) 62(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X 23(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ST JOHN NB 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X 19(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 32 19(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) HYANNIS MA 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 61 13(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) NANTUCKET MA 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062101 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has completed extratropical transition by that time. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several hours. 2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven