National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 082033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SHREVEPORT LA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JASPER TX 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 507 WTNT32 KNHC 082033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND TORNADOES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN AFTER THE STORM INCLUDING DOWNED POWER LINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 95.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TYLER TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 95.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or overnight and a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), primarily southeast of the center. A National Ocean Service station near Sabine Pass (TXPT2) recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h), and a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday. RAINFALL: An additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with localized amounts of 12 inches is expected across portions of eastern Texas through tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 95.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 110SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 95.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.2N 93.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 36.2N 91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.1N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.6N 83.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 43.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N 77.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081755 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...USE CAUTION AFTER THE STORM AS DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN INCLUDING DOWNED POWERLINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 95.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located by NWS radar data near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast from the center. A National Ocean Service station near the entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h), and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Huntsville Municipal Airport (KUTS) in Texas measured a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and Beaumont/Port Arthur Regional Airport (KBPT) recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081705
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beryl, located inland over eastern Texas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 081657 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL PERSISTING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Montgomery County Airport in Conroe (KCXO) recently reported a wind gust to 81 mph (130 km/h). This is the last hourly position estimate for Beryl. The next information will be the regularly scheduled 1 PM CDT Intermediate advisory. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 95.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake

...BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 32.2, -94.8 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 081559 CCA TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Corrected Header ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 11:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 30.1, -95.6 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 037 WTNT62 KNHC 081558 TCUAT2 Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 11:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 30.1, -95.6 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 15:36:07 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 15:13:29 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 928 WTNT42 KNHC 081451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and these are detailed in the Key Messages below. Beryl should remain a potent wind gust producer for the next few hours with recent observations in the eastern eyewall reporting wind gusts above 70 kt. As more of the circulation moves inland later today, Beryl is forecast to steadily weaken and become a tropical depression tonight or overnight. No change to the intensity forecast has been made. The storm is moving north-northeastward, now a little faster at 11 kt. Beryl should turn northeastward and accelerate across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, a bit to the east. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through this afternoon along the coast of Texas from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass, including the eastern portion of Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. 2. Damaging wind gusts near the core of Beryl will continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area, including the Houston metro area, for the next several hours. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 29.8N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 33.9N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 36.7N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1200Z 39.7N 86.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 42.2N 82.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 44.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 14:52:00 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 14:51:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 14:51:34 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 081450 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) KOUNTZE TX 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to Mesquite Bay, TX The Hurricane Warning from Mesquite Bay northward to Port O'Connor has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from north of Port O'Connor to Port Bolivar has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of Port O'Connor northward to Sabine Pass A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located by NWS radar data near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 95.7 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Houston Hobby Airport recently reported a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h), and Bush Intercontinental Airport recently reported a wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions with damaging wind gusts will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Freeport, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft Galveston Bay...4-6 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Matagorda, TX to Freeport, TX...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081449 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 95.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.9N 93.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.7N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.7N 86.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 42.2N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE