National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 082057 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 ...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday. Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions . Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 the center of Six was located near 21.6, -94.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 082055 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 94.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet
have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
on its western side. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form
during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally
northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional
strengthening possible by the middle of this week.

Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana
coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for portions of the coast of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon or
tonight, with additional watches possible along the coast of Texas
and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. An Air-Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in route to to investigate
the system this afternoon. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system over the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is now likely to form during that time
while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By
the middle of this week the system should begin moving more westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081248 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Corrected category for the 48 hour probability for AL92

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or
along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the
week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should
closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or
tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also
scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or
along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the
week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should
closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or
tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also
scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data indicate a broad area of low pressure is
located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico while
interacting with a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to
drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Interests along
the western Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic are showing gradual
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally westward at about
10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected to move very little
during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080009 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Corrected typo in the second disturbance paragraph.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs
of organization. Gradual additional development is possible, and a
tropical depression could form while the system meanders over the
central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally
westward at about 10 mph through the rest of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move very
little during the next few days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or late portions of next week.
The system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs
of organization. Gradual additional development is possible while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through
Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the
rest of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move very
little during the next few days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or late portions of next week.
The system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it
interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and
Texas Gulf coastline. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible while the system meanders
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. The system is then forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is
possible as it interacts with a tropical wave expected to move off
the African continent early next week and moves west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern
Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The wave is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today,
and an area of low pressure is forecast to develop while interacting
with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

033
ABNT20 KNHC 062316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The
wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where
it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing broad shower and thunderstorm
activity. A more concentrated area of low pressure may form within
this region during the next couple of days. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders
through the early part of next week and then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and
lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical
cyclone development is not expected. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash
flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
An intensifying low pressure system located several hundred miles
east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast continues to take on a
non-tropical structure and is now producing winds to storm force.
Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it
moves north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern
United States toward Atlantic Canada. Additional information on
this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday,
where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable
for significant development of this system while it meanders over
the northwestern Gulf and eventually merges with another approaching
frontal system later today or on Saturday. Although tropical
cyclone development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Satellite images indicate that a gale-force low pressure system
located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
increasingly taking on a non-tropical structure. The low is
forecast to move north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the
northeastern United States, reaching colder waters by this evening
and overnight, and its opportunity to acquire subtropical
characteristics appears to be decreasing. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located near the coast of Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move across Central
America and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and some slow
development is possible over the weekend after the system emerges
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished tonight in
association with a broad area of low pressure and a nearby weak
front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this
system while it meanders over the northwestern Gulf and eventually
merges with an approaching frontal system later today or on
Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is unlikely, heavy
rainfall is expected to continue across portions of the northern
Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization with a
gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few hundred
miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite wind data
indicate a front extends into the low. This system could briefly
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next day or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. The low is expected to move over
cooler waters by early Saturday, and thereafter further development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Development is
not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Some slow development is possible later this
weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad area of
low pressure that is interacting with a nearby weak front.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern
Gulf and eventually merges with an approaching frontal system by
late Friday or Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is
unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across portions of
the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and
thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its
center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become
associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is
not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some slow development is possible
later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure interacting with a weak frontal
boundary located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by late
Friday and Saturday as another frontal boundary approaches the
system. Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is
expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite data
indicates the system is producing winds to near gale-force. This
system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics
over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday,
further development is not expected. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Development is not
expected through this weekend while the system moves little. Some
slow development appears possible early next week when the
disturbance begins moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea. Development is not expected before the
system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday.
Some gradual development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit
development of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Delgado

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by
Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.
Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected
across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or
so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple
of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining
offshore of the northeastern United States. Once the low moves
over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea. Significant development appears unlikely
before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early
Friday. Some development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

265
ABNT20 KNHC 050526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity well to the east of its center. This system could acquire
some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. Once the low moves over cooler
waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not
expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the
western Caribbean Sea continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible
in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart