Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 29A

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 10

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory. The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120 h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain. The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 241451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT THOMAS 34 47 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 1(50) SAINT CROIX 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 1(39) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 10

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 10

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 65.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 29

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241445 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however, we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance. Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 241444 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 5 16(21) 18(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 29

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 29

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 7

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Lorenzo's structure has not changed much during the morning. A small central dense overcast continues over the center with multiple curved bands within the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB. Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend, sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass should foster intensification during the next several days. Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop from 53 percent to 23 percent. In addition, the overall guidance envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF and the Florida State Superensemble. RI is still a possibility, but as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt. Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W. Ridging is relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western Atlantic. With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days 3-5. During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are about 350 nm apart on day 5. This spread isn't too significant, and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 12.4N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 241435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 7

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241435 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 7

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 29.3W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 29.3 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A northwestward motion should begin on Thursday and continue into Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday, and a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
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4 years 5 months ago
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