4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 241735
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...JERRY WEAKENING...
As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
the center of Jerry was located near 30.9, -69.1
with movement N at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:57:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:25:00 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:54:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:31:54 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT42 KNHC 241452
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either
the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory.
The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of
the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central
pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt
south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory.
The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering
environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and
northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large
mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern
Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward
today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should
continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center
of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120
h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge
to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward
motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the
previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building
enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other
models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120
h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain.
The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting
Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should
allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the
storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit
intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea
surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical
models.
Key Messages:
1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 17.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000
FONT12 KNHC 241451
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
SAINT THOMAS 34 47 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 1(50)
SAINT CROIX 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 1(39)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT32 KNHC 241451
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24
the center of Karen was located near 17.5, -65.8
with movement N at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000
WTNT22 KNHC 241451
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 65.7W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 65.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT45 KNHC 241445
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a
system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of
central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced
to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone
looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however,
we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level
winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still
support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an
increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with
the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming
stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued
weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast
period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.
Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a
little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion
estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days
Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the
flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the
period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to
east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical
anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous
one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model
consensus guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or
early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 241444
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 5 16(21) 18(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 241444
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA
TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north
near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by
tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA TOMORROW...
As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24
the center of Jerry was located near 30.8, -69.3
with movement N at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 991 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000
WTNT25 KNHC 241443
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 69.1W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:37:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:38:29 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT43 KNHC 241436
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Lorenzo's structure has not changed much during the morning. A
small central dense overcast continues over the center with
multiple curved bands within the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass
showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given
sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which
matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB.
Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend,
sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass
should foster intensification during the next several days.
Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous
advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid
Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop
from 53 percent to 23 percent. In addition, the overall guidance
envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the
guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF
and the Florida State Superensemble. RI is still a possibility, but
as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz
microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode.
The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt.
Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W. Ridging is
relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low
over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western
Atlantic. With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin
recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days
3-5. During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed
by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are
about 350 nm apart on day 5. This spread isn't too significant,
and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly
eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 12.4N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000
FONT13 KNHC 241435
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000
WTNT23 KNHC 241435
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 28.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 70SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 29.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT33 KNHC 241435
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 29.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 29.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
northwestward motion should begin on Thursday and continue into
Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday, and a major
hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24
the center of Lorenzo was located near 12.4, -29.3
with movement WNW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
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