National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 690 FONT12 KNHC 010844 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 08:47:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 09:23:05 GMT

691
ABNT20 KNHC 010532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Joyce, whose remnants are located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 02:36:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 03:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010234 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 010233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 36.8W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 36.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Kirk was located near 14.4, -36.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 980 WTNT22 KNHC 010233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 140SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 36.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 02:32:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 03:22:54 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 083 WTNT41 KNHC 010231 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Joyce Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Recent CIRA ProxyVis GOES imagery, and an ASCAT-C overpass around 00Z indicate that Joyce no longer has a well-defined center. Therefore, Joyce is no longer a tropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The ASCAT data indicated that winds of 25-30 kt are still occuring near the remaining convection associated with the remnants of Joyce. Joyce's remnants are expected to merge with a mid-latitude system and accelerate northeastward during the next couple of days. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 164 FONT11 KNHC 010231 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF JOYCE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Joyce Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...JOYCE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOYCE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 49.0W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Joyce were located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 49.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The remnants of Joyce are expected to merge with a mid-latitude trough and accelerate northeastward during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...JOYCE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOYCE... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Joyce was located near 23.0, -49.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010230 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 49.0W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 49.0W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 49.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to gradually increase in association with the system, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:42:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 21:29:00 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values. The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about 10 kt. Very little change was made to the track forecast, with below-average model spread across the entire period due to well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period. Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane, possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302040 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts of convection just east and especially just north of the generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt for this advisory based on continuity. Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous track forecast. Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Konarik/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 302040 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE