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2 years 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor
adjustments made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest
guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/28/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough will advance eastward
across the western CONUS. Preceding the trough, strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow will impinge on the central/southern Rockies,
promoting continued lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the
southern High Plains. Here, 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface
winds combined with 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated
fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level flow pattern is forecast to gradually
amplify across much of the CONUS D2/Wednesday. Large-scale troughing
over the eastern half of the country will shift eastward as it
becomes broader before eventually moving offshore. To the west, a
shortwave ridge will build over the center of the country as a
second trough/closed low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the
surface, high pressure initially over the Midwest will gradually
strengthen and shift eastward with time in the wake of a cold front
sweeping to the south. Farther west, low pressure will move onshore
over central CA as several weak areas of low pressure slowly
consolidate over the Intermountain West and the lee of the Rockies.
...South Florida...
Across the southern Peninsula, afternoon heating ahead of the
slow-moving cold front and sea breeze boundaries should support the
development of scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Area model soundings show only modest mid-level lapse rates
and weak to moderate uni-directional shear profiles below 6 km.
Despite some lingering enhanced flow aloft at the base of the
departing northeastern US trough, storm organization potential
appears relatively low. Afternoon mixing, and the somewhat enhanced
flow aloft may allow for an isolated stronger downdraft capable of
strong to severe winds. However confidence is limited, and severe
probabilities are expected to remain below 5 percent.
...California...
As the upper low moves onshore over southern and central CA early
D2/Wednesday, strong flow aloft, mid-level height falls, and cold
advection aloft may allow for sufficient destabilization to support
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Confidence in storm development
is highest across portions of the southern Central Valley, closest
to the H5 -30C cold pocket aloft. Despite the cool temperatures
aloft, widespread cloud cover and precipitation from subtropical
moisture should limit diurnal heating and subsequent lapse
rates/instability. Vertical wind profiles could briefly support some
transient organized updrafts capable of small hail, but the limited
instability and weak low-level and effective shear should limit the
severe potential below Marginal criteria.
...Eastern Great Lakes/Northeast US...
As the aforementioned eastern US upper trough shifts eastward, a
strong surface cold front will move out of southern Canada into the
eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Marginal buoyancy with steep
lapse rates may allow for a few lightning flashes to develop within
a band of strongly forced, low-topped, convection along the front
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Winds in the lowest few km are not
expected to be overly strong, but may still support a few sub-severe
gusts with the convective band as it moves eastward through the
afternoon. A thunder area has been added.
..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/28/2023
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and some hail are expected through the
afternoon across portions of the Southeast.
...Coastal Southeast...
A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms, seemingly aided by an
MCV, are ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle
into far southwest Georgia as of midday. Preceding cloud breaks are
noted across northern Florida into southern Georgia coincident with
upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Further destabilization
(upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be conducive for an uptick
in convective intensity this afternoon, with some measure of storm
organization with aid of 40+ kt effective shear. Some of the storms
may produce isolated damaging winds and possibly some hail as they
spread east-southeastward this afternoon. Storms should shift
offshore and/or weaken by around sunset.
...Deep South Texas...
Severe potential should continue to diminish and remain low owing to
the influx of cooler/drier post-frontal air.
..Guyer/Moore.. 03/28/2023
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.
..Squitieri.. 03/28/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the eastern
CONUS today, while broad/enhanced westerly midlevel flow persists
over the central/southern Rockies in its wake. As surface high
pressure shifts eastward from the central Plains into the MS Valley,
dry/breezy southerly return flow will overspread the
central/southern High Plains -- aided by weak lee cyclogenesis over
eastern CO. This will support 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface
winds and 10-15 percent RH, yielding high-end elevated to
near-critical conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GA...FAR SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle...Southern GA...Far
Southeast AL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...
Valid 272011Z - 272215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts or instances of hail remain
possible, but limited coverage and severity preclude the need for a
downstream watch.
DISCUSSION...Convective evolution continues to trend towards bowing
line segments along the composite outflow pushing southeastward
across far southeast AL and southern GA into the central/western FL
Panhandle. This trend is expected to persist, likely occurring next
with the multicell cluster over far southeast AL. Gusts have remain
sub-severe throughout the day, and that trend is expected to
continue as well. The airmass downstream has also mixed out well,
with the greater convective inhibition potentially contributing to
gradually diminishing storm intensity. All of these factors suggest
low severe potential, with only isolated damaging gusts and/or
instances of hail anticipated. As such, a downstream watch is not
needed.
..Mosier.. 03/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30548635 31128597 31688369 32258155 32068082 31028165
30178539 30548635
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf
Coast to the Southeast States through tonight.
A Marginal Risk was added for parts of the Edwards Plateau into
central Texas. See MCD 376 for additional details on the afternoon
threat. This threat will persist into the overnight period as a
front moves south through the region elevated instability.
A few thunderstorms have developed in west-central North Carolina.
However, relatively warm mid-level temperatures seem to have
mitigated updraft intensity thus far. Expect storms to mostly remain
below severe limits through the afternoon/evening. See MCD 375 for
additional details.
Otherwise, adjusted the Marginal and Slight Risk slightly farther
south in Georgia and southeast Alabama to account for the current
frontal position as storms and the front continue to shift south.
..Bentley.. 03/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/
...Southeast States...
Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite
outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama
across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even
while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the
Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a
gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with
multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of
damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the
strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across
parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the
1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential.
...Southeast Texas and Louisiana...
The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas
coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly
across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373
for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will
otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight,
peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the
central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of
the timing/placement of most probable convective development.
Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will
foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest
elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will
probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor
tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is
the most probable hazard.
...Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity...
There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe
elevated storms could develop across the region late this
afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting
this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained
severe storms is still expected to remain low.
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest
guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, surface high
pressure will shift eastward from the Plains into the MS Valley,
while moderate westerly midlevel flow persists across the
central/southern Rockies. As a result, dry/breezy southerly return
flow will overspread the central/southern High Plains during the
afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20
percent RH should support high-end elevated to near-critical
fire-weather conditions -- especially from northeastern NM into far
southeastern CO during the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CEW TO
20 ENE DHN TO 25 WNW ABY TO 20 ENE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 20 SW VDI
TO 35 ENE VDI TO 30 NNE SAV.
..LYONS..03/27/23
ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC061-069-272040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GENEVA HOUSTON
GAC001-005-017-029-037-051-069-095-099-103-109-155-161-179-183-
191-267-271-305-321-272040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING BACON BEN HILL
BRYAN CALHOUN CHATHAM
COFFEE DOUGHERTY EARLY
EFFINGHAM EVANS IRWIN
JEFF DAVIS LIBERTY LONG
MCINTOSH TATTNALL TELFAIR
WAYNE WORTH
SCC013-053-272040-
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 92 SEVERE TSTM AL GA SC 271500Z - 272200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 92
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Southern and Central Georgia
Southern South Carolina
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1100 AM until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to gradually intensify
into this afternoon along and south of a boundary across the region,
with the strongest storms capable of a hail and damaging wind risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south
southwest of Troy AL to 25 miles north northeast of Savannah GA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 91...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE GULF COAST TO THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday
afternoon across portions of the central Gulf coast into southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Strong gusts and hail will be the main
hazards with these storms. Additional isolated strong to severe
storms will be possible in south Texas Tuesday night with a threat
for hail and strong wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
A stationary front will be somewhere near the Florida/Georgia border
Tuesday morning and extend westward along the Gulf Coast to
south-central Texas. During the day, this front is expected to
advance southeastward as a cold front as strong high pressure builds
into the Plains and strengthens the offshore pressure gradient.
...Central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia/Florida...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Storm mode will
likely be messy, but some threat for large hail or damaging wind
gusts will be possible with the stronger storms, particularly any
storms which remain south of the surface boundary. These storms are
expected to congeal into a line and move southward offshore during
the afternoon as the surface front starts to advance south.
Farther east across southern Georgia/Florida, a slightly greater
severe weather threat may exist where some surface heating may occur
in the morning and develop moderate MLCAPE amongst effective shear
around 40-45 kts. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary
threat.
...South Texas...
Moderate elevated instability will exist across South Texas during
much of the period Tuesday. Forcing will be nebulous, but a
southward surging front in the morning, and an approaching
subtropical mid-level jet streak in the evening may both be
sufficient for some elevated thunderstorms. Large hail will be the
primary threat, but a moist profile (2 in. PWAT) and only a weak
surface inversion could support an isolated wet microburst.
..Bentley.. 03/27/2023
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf
Coast to the Southeast States through tonight.
...Southeast States...
Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite
outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama
across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even
while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the
Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a
gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with
multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of
damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the
strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across
parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the
1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential.
...Southeast Texas and Louisiana...
The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas
coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly
across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373
for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will
otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight,
peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the
central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of
the timing/placement of most probable convective development.
Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will
foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest
elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will
probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor
tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is
the most probable hazard.
...Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity...
There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe
elevated storms could develop across the region late this
afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting
this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained
severe storms is still expected to remain low.
..Guyer/Moore.. 03/27/2023
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0088 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 88 TORNADO LA MS 262055Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 88
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Eastern Louisiana
Southern and Central Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Supercell storms are expected to develop across and move
into southern and parts of central Mississippi this evening. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main threats initially, but the
tornado potential should increase toward and after sunset, when
low-level shear will considerably increase. This includes the
potential for long-lived supercells and strong tornadoes (EF2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Natchez MS
to 35 miles south southeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 26030.
...Guyer
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
..THORNTON..03/26/23
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-011-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-
061-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-109-113-129-131-
262140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BULLOCK BUTLER CHOCTAW
CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL
WASHINGTON WILCOX
FLC033-059-063-091-113-131-133-262140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 86 SEVERE TSTM AL 261700Z - 262300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 86
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 600
PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist and somewhat increase
this afternoon across southern Alabama as temperatures warm and the
air mass destabilizes. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging
winds are the most probable hazards this afternoon. The tornado
potential is expected to increase across parts of the region later
into the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of
Evergreen AL to 30 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
..THORNTON..03/26/23
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-039-041-043-059-069-079-085-097-107-
115-127-262140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS
VERNON WINN
TXC005-199-241-291-351-373-403-405-407-457-262140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER
LIBERTY NEWTON POLK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
TYLER
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
WW 87 TORNADO LA TX 261745Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 87
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Louisiana
Southeast Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Storms including supercells are expected to develop along
a boundary from southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large hail can be
expected, aside from damaging winds and an increasing tornado risk.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Alexandria
LA to 55 miles south southwest of Lufkin TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Guyer
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
MD 0359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
Areas affected...Central and Southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 262006Z - 262200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat will rapidly increase in the next few hours
across parts of Mississippi. Very large hail and tornadoes will be
possible. A new watch will be issued within the hour.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating has been occurring today across central
and southern MS, where temperatures have risen well into the 80s. A
surface warm front is lifting northward across the region, allowing
70s dewpoints to spread into central MS. This is yielding MLCAPE
values around 3000 J/kg with minimal cap. Several intense
severe/supercell storms have developed over western/central LA that
will track eastward into MS beginning after 4pm. Other isolated
cells are likely to form out ahead of this activity through the
evening.
Forecast soundings indicate an environment very favorable for
discrete supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes.
Low-level winds will strengthen rapidly by late afternoon/early
evening. This may also increase the risk of strong tornadoes -
especially for those storms that can track in vicinity of the
surface warm front.
A tornado watch will be issued within the hour.
..Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32679195 32858885 32198843 30748885 30569184 32679195
Read more
2 years 6 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South this
afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Southern and Central Mississippi
Southern Alabama
Central Louisiana
Far East/Southeast Texas
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds
* SUMMARY...
Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a
broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong
tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense
storms, particularly from central Louisiana across
central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this
afternoon and evening.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
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2 years 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a
broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong
tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense
storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern
portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
Two strong supercells have developed in far southeast Texas and
should maintain themselves as they move east. The low-level jet is
only around 25 knots per the LCH 18Z RAOB and the POE VWP. However,
this flow is expected to increase to around 35 knots by 22Z.
Therefore, the tornado threat is expected to increase once these
storms reach eastern Louisiana and into Mississippi. See MCD 357 for
additional information about the evolving threat in this region.
A cluster of supercells has developed farther north across
north-central Louisiana. Storm interference will likely keep the
severe threat somewhat muted, but some large hail is possible from
this activity.
Additional supercells may develop across eastern Louisiana and
central Mississippi this afternoon along and to the south of a
frontal zone in the region. These storms will pose a threat for all
severe weather hazards including tornadoes, some strong.
Ongoing supercells across southern Alabama and vicinity are expected
to continue through the afternoon and into the evening with mostly a
large hail threat. See MCD 358 for additional details.
A few damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado remain possible across
Northeast Illinois/northern Indiana. See MCD 356 for additional
information.
..Bentley.. 03/26/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/
...Deep South/Southeast...
Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue
early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern
North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally
favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast
Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near
the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing
a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary
layer will continue to diurnally destabilize.
Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep
convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from
east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur
relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale
Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will
not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early
evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs
enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense
supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the
boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for
tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist
with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south
of the boundary and move into and/or develop across
south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually
southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds
further intensify.
...Illinois/Indiana...
Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave
trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should
remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through
the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough
passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any
convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated
damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across
north-central/northeast Illinois.
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Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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