SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor adjustments made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough will advance eastward across the western CONUS. Preceding the trough, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the central/southern Rockies, promoting continued lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains. Here, 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds combined with 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 28, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level flow pattern is forecast to gradually amplify across much of the CONUS D2/Wednesday. Large-scale troughing over the eastern half of the country will shift eastward as it becomes broader before eventually moving offshore. To the west, a shortwave ridge will build over the center of the country as a second trough/closed low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure initially over the Midwest will gradually strengthen and shift eastward with time in the wake of a cold front sweeping to the south. Farther west, low pressure will move onshore over central CA as several weak areas of low pressure slowly consolidate over the Intermountain West and the lee of the Rockies. ...South Florida... Across the southern Peninsula, afternoon heating ahead of the slow-moving cold front and sea breeze boundaries should support the development of scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Area model soundings show only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak to moderate uni-directional shear profiles below 6 km. Despite some lingering enhanced flow aloft at the base of the departing northeastern US trough, storm organization potential appears relatively low. Afternoon mixing, and the somewhat enhanced flow aloft may allow for an isolated stronger downdraft capable of strong to severe winds. However confidence is limited, and severe probabilities are expected to remain below 5 percent. ...California... As the upper low moves onshore over southern and central CA early D2/Wednesday, strong flow aloft, mid-level height falls, and cold advection aloft may allow for sufficient destabilization to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Confidence in storm development is highest across portions of the southern Central Valley, closest to the H5 -30C cold pocket aloft. Despite the cool temperatures aloft, widespread cloud cover and precipitation from subtropical moisture should limit diurnal heating and subsequent lapse rates/instability. Vertical wind profiles could briefly support some transient organized updrafts capable of small hail, but the limited instability and weak low-level and effective shear should limit the severe potential below Marginal criteria. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Northeast US... As the aforementioned eastern US upper trough shifts eastward, a strong surface cold front will move out of southern Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Marginal buoyancy with steep lapse rates may allow for a few lightning flashes to develop within a band of strongly forced, low-topped, convection along the front Wednesday afternoon/evening. Winds in the lowest few km are not expected to be overly strong, but may still support a few sub-severe gusts with the convective band as it moves eastward through the afternoon. A thunder area has been added. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/28/2023 Read more

SPC Mar 28, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and some hail are expected through the afternoon across portions of the Southeast. ...Coastal Southeast... A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms, seemingly aided by an MCV, are ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia as of midday. Preceding cloud breaks are noted across northern Florida into southern Georgia coincident with upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Further destabilization (upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be conducive for an uptick in convective intensity this afternoon, with some measure of storm organization with aid of 40+ kt effective shear. Some of the storms may produce isolated damaging winds and possibly some hail as they spread east-southeastward this afternoon. Storms should shift offshore and/or weaken by around sunset. ...Deep South Texas... Severe potential should continue to diminish and remain low owing to the influx of cooler/drier post-frontal air. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the eastern CONUS today, while broad/enhanced westerly midlevel flow persists over the central/southern Rockies in its wake. As surface high pressure shifts eastward from the central Plains into the MS Valley, dry/breezy southerly return flow will overspread the central/southern High Plains -- aided by weak lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO. This will support 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH, yielding high-end elevated to near-critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 377

2 years 6 months ago
MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GA...FAR SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle...Southern GA...Far Southeast AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92... Valid 272011Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts or instances of hail remain possible, but limited coverage and severity preclude the need for a downstream watch. DISCUSSION...Convective evolution continues to trend towards bowing line segments along the composite outflow pushing southeastward across far southeast AL and southern GA into the central/western FL Panhandle. This trend is expected to persist, likely occurring next with the multicell cluster over far southeast AL. Gusts have remain sub-severe throughout the day, and that trend is expected to continue as well. The airmass downstream has also mixed out well, with the greater convective inhibition potentially contributing to gradually diminishing storm intensity. All of these factors suggest low severe potential, with only isolated damaging gusts and/or instances of hail anticipated. As such, a downstream watch is not needed. ..Mosier.. 03/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30548635 31128597 31688369 32258155 32068082 31028165 30178539 30548635 Read more

SPC Mar 27, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States through tonight. A Marginal Risk was added for parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. See MCD 376 for additional details on the afternoon threat. This threat will persist into the overnight period as a front moves south through the region elevated instability. A few thunderstorms have developed in west-central North Carolina. However, relatively warm mid-level temperatures seem to have mitigated updraft intensity thus far. Expect storms to mostly remain below severe limits through the afternoon/evening. See MCD 375 for additional details. Otherwise, adjusted the Marginal and Slight Risk slightly farther south in Georgia and southeast Alabama to account for the current frontal position as storms and the front continue to shift south. ..Bentley.. 03/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/ ...Southeast States... Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the 1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential. ...Southeast Texas and Louisiana... The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373 for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity... There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe elevated storms could develop across the region late this afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained severe storms is still expected to remain low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, surface high pressure will shift eastward from the Plains into the MS Valley, while moderate westerly midlevel flow persists across the central/southern Rockies. As a result, dry/breezy southerly return flow will overspread the central/southern High Plains during the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH should support high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions -- especially from northeastern NM into far southeastern CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92 Status Reports

2 years 6 months ago
WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CEW TO 20 ENE DHN TO 25 WNW ABY TO 20 ENE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 20 SW VDI TO 35 ENE VDI TO 30 NNE SAV. ..LYONS..03/27/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 92 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC061-069-272040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENEVA HOUSTON GAC001-005-017-029-037-051-069-095-099-103-109-155-161-179-183- 191-267-271-305-321-272040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BEN HILL BRYAN CALHOUN CHATHAM COFFEE DOUGHERTY EARLY EFFINGHAM EVANS IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH TATTNALL TELFAIR WAYNE WORTH SCC013-053-272040- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92

2 years 6 months ago
WW 92 SEVERE TSTM AL GA SC 271500Z - 272200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 92 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Southern and Central Georgia Southern South Carolina * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1100 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to gradually intensify into this afternoon along and south of a boundary across the region, with the strongest storms capable of a hail and damaging wind risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Troy AL to 25 miles north northeast of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 91... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Mar 27, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE GULF COAST TO THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday afternoon across portions of the central Gulf coast into southern Georgia and northern Florida. Strong gusts and hail will be the main hazards with these storms. Additional isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in south Texas Tuesday night with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. ...Synopsis... A stationary front will be somewhere near the Florida/Georgia border Tuesday morning and extend westward along the Gulf Coast to south-central Texas. During the day, this front is expected to advance southeastward as a cold front as strong high pressure builds into the Plains and strengthens the offshore pressure gradient. ...Central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia/Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Storm mode will likely be messy, but some threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible with the stronger storms, particularly any storms which remain south of the surface boundary. These storms are expected to congeal into a line and move southward offshore during the afternoon as the surface front starts to advance south. Farther east across southern Georgia/Florida, a slightly greater severe weather threat may exist where some surface heating may occur in the morning and develop moderate MLCAPE amongst effective shear around 40-45 kts. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat. ...South Texas... Moderate elevated instability will exist across South Texas during much of the period Tuesday. Forcing will be nebulous, but a southward surging front in the morning, and an approaching subtropical mid-level jet streak in the evening may both be sufficient for some elevated thunderstorms. Large hail will be the primary threat, but a moist profile (2 in. PWAT) and only a weak surface inversion could support an isolated wet microburst. ..Bentley.. 03/27/2023 Read more

SPC Mar 27, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States through tonight. ...Southeast States... Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the 1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential. ...Southeast Texas and Louisiana... The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373 for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity... There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe elevated storms could develop across the region late this afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained severe storms is still expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/27/2023 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 88

2 years 6 months ago
WW 88 TORNADO LA MS 262055Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell storms are expected to develop across and move into southern and parts of central Mississippi this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats initially, but the tornado potential should increase toward and after sunset, when low-level shear will considerably increase. This includes the potential for long-lived supercells and strong tornadoes (EF2+). The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Natchez MS to 35 miles south southeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86 Status Reports

2 years 6 months ago
WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358 ..THORNTON..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053- 061-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-109-113-129-131- 262140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-059-063-091-113-131-133-262140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86

2 years 6 months ago
WW 86 SEVERE TSTM AL 261700Z - 262300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 86 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist and somewhat increase this afternoon across southern Alabama as temperatures warm and the air mass destabilizes. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are the most probable hazards this afternoon. The tornado potential is expected to increase across parts of the region later into the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Evergreen AL to 30 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 87 Status Reports

2 years 6 months ago
WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357 ..THORNTON..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-039-041-043-059-069-079-085-097-107- 115-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-291-351-373-403-405-407-457-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER LIBERTY NEWTON POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO TYLER Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 87

2 years 6 months ago
WW 87 TORNADO LA TX 261745Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 87 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms including supercells are expected to develop along a boundary from southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large hail can be expected, aside from damaging winds and an increasing tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Alexandria LA to 55 miles south southwest of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC MD 359

2 years 6 months ago
MD 0359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Areas affected...Central and Southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262006Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat will rapidly increase in the next few hours across parts of Mississippi. Very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. A new watch will be issued within the hour. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has been occurring today across central and southern MS, where temperatures have risen well into the 80s. A surface warm front is lifting northward across the region, allowing 70s dewpoints to spread into central MS. This is yielding MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg with minimal cap. Several intense severe/supercell storms have developed over western/central LA that will track eastward into MS beginning after 4pm. Other isolated cells are likely to form out ahead of this activity through the evening. Forecast soundings indicate an environment very favorable for discrete supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. Low-level winds will strengthen rapidly by late afternoon/early evening. This may also increase the risk of strong tornadoes - especially for those storms that can track in vicinity of the surface warm front. A tornado watch will be issued within the hour. ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32679195 32858885 32198843 30748885 30569184 32679195 Read more

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

2 years 6 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern and Central Mississippi Southern Alabama Central Louisiana Far East/Southeast Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC Mar 26, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Two strong supercells have developed in far southeast Texas and should maintain themselves as they move east. The low-level jet is only around 25 knots per the LCH 18Z RAOB and the POE VWP. However, this flow is expected to increase to around 35 knots by 22Z. Therefore, the tornado threat is expected to increase once these storms reach eastern Louisiana and into Mississippi. See MCD 357 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. A cluster of supercells has developed farther north across north-central Louisiana. Storm interference will likely keep the severe threat somewhat muted, but some large hail is possible from this activity. Additional supercells may develop across eastern Louisiana and central Mississippi this afternoon along and to the south of a frontal zone in the region. These storms will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including tornadoes, some strong. Ongoing supercells across southern Alabama and vicinity are expected to continue through the afternoon and into the evening with mostly a large hail threat. See MCD 358 for additional details. A few damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado remain possible across Northeast Illinois/northern Indiana. See MCD 356 for additional information. ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/ ...Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize. Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify. ...Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois. Read more
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