Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Great Plains. Hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. ...Dakotas vicinity... A broad mid-level trough near the Canadian Rockies will amplify as it moves east to the ND/Manitoba border by early Monday morning. Concurrently, height falls accompanying the mid-level trough will overspread the Dakotas during the period. A surface trough will sharpen during the day as southerly low-level flow maintains a fetch of 60s F surface dewpoints into the Dakotas. Diurnal heating and convergence near the boundary will preferentially favor storm development along the boundary by mid-late afternoon. Adequately strong mid- to high-level westerly flow coupled with moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells are possible with an associated hail/wind risk in addition to episodically severe multicells. Storms will likely weaken during the evening as the activity approaches the Red River as a combination of increasing convective inhibition and weakening instability lead to a lessening risk for severe in MN. ...Eastern OK and the western Ozark Plateau... A couple of thunderstorm clusters are likely to be ongoing this morning over northeast OK near the terminus of a weakening/veering southern Plains' LLJ. A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with this activity during the morning as it moves southeastward into western portions of the Ozark Plateau. Considerable uncertainty remains whether storms will develop later in the day along residual outflow draped across central-eastern OK. Confidence is low at this time regarding a late-day scenario for severe, but later outlooks will reassess whether this possibility warrants associated severe probabilities. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/25/2019 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-019-033-035-041-047-049-053-073-077-079-095- 097-105-113-115-143-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191- 250640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS ELK ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AMA TO 10 W EHA. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-250540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-250540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 242250Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated storms moving into far northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle should further intensify while other storms develop through the evening. Large hail should be the primary risk, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly during the early/mid-evening hours as a low-level jet increases across the region. Damaging wind potential could also increase if an organized cluster evolves as storms progress southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Clayton NM to 85 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1852 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 616... FOR KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 250404Z - 250600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk is slowly diminishing, but potential for locally damaging winds is expected to increase over the next couple of hours. A replacement for tornado watch #616, with a new severe thunderstorm watch, will likely be issued within the hour. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows earlier supercell storms over portions of the watch diminishing in organization cellularly. However, an organizing band of storms is now indicated over north-central Kansas, moving south-southeastward at 25 kt. With time, this band of storms is expected to expand, moving across central Kansas and into northern Oklahoma -- aided by an axis of moderate instability, and a 25 to 35 kt southerly low-level jet as indicated by recent VWPs. Though the boundary layer has diurnally cooled, dewpoints largely in the low 70s across the area suggest potential for locally damaging winds nonetheless. As such, tornado watch #616 will be replaced by a new severe thunderstorm watch, covering a larger portion of central Kansas east of the current watch. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37020161 37590128 40039952 40159835 39319743 36669607 36909819 37020161 Read more

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Northwest/north-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 250345Z - 250545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind risk will exist across northwest Oklahoma late this evening, although the primary severe potential may not occur until overnight across northern Oklahoma. A watch issuance is uncertain in the short term, but one could be needed late tonight/overnight. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has shown recent signs of intensification near and just north of the Kansas/Oklahoma state line, roughly 50 miles south of Dodge City or 50 miles northwest of Woodward, OK as of 1030 PM CDT. This activity is occurring near the anvil edge of other storms farther north across southwest Kansas, with all of this activity influenced by the southern edge of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough across western Kansas. Low-level inhibition has increased this evening across northwest Oklahoma as the boundary layer has cooled, although a corridor of ample low-level moisture/instability persists. It is possible that the storms moving into northwest Oklahoma further intensify/organize over the next hour or so, but at this time, it appears any related hail/wind risk may remain fairly localized. Short-term convective trends will continue to be monitored, but a relatively higher severe potential may not occur across a broader part of northern Oklahoma until the overnight hours as an MCS moves south-southeastward across central Kansas. ..Guyer.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36319991 36950006 37059981 36999793 36289753 36319991 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE TCC TO 10 W EHA. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-025-139-250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS TXC111-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-250340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 616 TORNADO CO KS NE 242225Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Western and central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase initially across southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and also southwest Kansas through early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The possibility of a couple of tornadoes will also increase through the early/mid-evening hours, particularly across a broad part of western toward north-central Kansas. Damaging winds will also be an increasing concern later this evening as an organized thunderstorm cluster likely evolves and spreads southeastward across northwest/central Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Burlington CO to 30 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1850 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 250209Z - 250415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to increase across portions of the WW area in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...While storms which developed earlier across southeast Colorado have diminished, new convective development is ongoing over southwestern Kansas, with storms moving south-southeastward. The convection is occurring in response to a strengthening low-level jet, and as such, it appears possible that some of this convection will affect portions of WW 617 in the next couple of hours. The main risk with this convection, assuming the expected upscale growth, would be locally damaging wind gusts. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37010302 36949984 35409996 35580304 37010302 Read more

MD 1849 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 616... FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...western Kansas and adjacent portion of southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 250139Z - 250345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing at this time across Tornado Watch 616 -- including potential for an isolated tornado. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a noted increase in convection over the past hour across western Kansas, which is correlated with the beginnings of an observed increase in low-level flow. As the jet continues to strengthen this evening, and given the moist/moderately unstable airmass in place across this region, a continuation of this convective increase is expected. While storms remain isolated, and continue to exhibit supercell structures, an isolated tornado remains possible, along with locally damaging winds and large hail. With time, wind risk is expected to increase, as upscale growth of convection into an MCS continues to appear likely. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 40360193 40349914 39629786 38209804 37069835 37040202 37970214 39080225 40360193 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more