Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the upper pattern through much of next week. Current expectation is for the upper flow across the CONUS to trend more zonal on D4/Wednesday before a building ridge over the western CONUS slowly amplifies the pattern on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. Favorable low-level moisture is forecast to return across the central Plains ahead of an approaching cold front on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible along the front on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday but more run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is still needed before confidence in the location and coverage of severe thunderstorms is high enough to delineate any areas. Read more

MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 250820Z - 250915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty wind threat should continue across parts of south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Downstream watch issuance in northern Oklahoma is appearing less likely. DISCUSSION...Ongoing bowing cluster of storms moving across south-central into southeastern KS has produced mainly sub-severe winds over the past 1-2 hours. A recent peak wind gust to 35 kt was observed at KICT (Wichita KS), which is in line with gradually diminishing velocities observed on radar imagery. Still, an isolated strong/gusty wind threat should persist with this convection as it continued to move southeastward through the pre-dawn hours. An embedded supercell has recently strengthened on the northern flank of this line across Morris County KS, which suggests an isolated threat for large hail may also continue in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618. Given recent observational trends, downstream watch issuance into northern OK is appearing less likely in the short term. To the west of the main line, a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet observed on the KDDC VWP is encouraging the development of another small cluster across parts of south-central KS. It remains unclear whether this convection will become sufficiently organized in the wake of outflow from the leading bow to pose a severe wind threat. But, a threat for isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may be increasing across western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 in the next hour or so. ..Gleason.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38459951 38439891 38309854 37969835 37779773 37969715 38379696 38969696 38819624 37969595 36989598 36529611 36379659 36349760 36499871 37019952 38459951 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RSL TO 20 SSW RSL TO 25 W HUT TO 5 SSW HUT TO 25 E HUT TO 40 SE SLN TO 30 ESE SLN TO 25 W MHK. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-019-033-035-041-047-049-073-077-079-095-097- 115-145-151-155-165-173-185-191-250840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MARION PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a general lack of fuels. With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to 30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a general lack of fuels. With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to 30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a general lack of fuels. With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to 30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a general lack of fuels. With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to 30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RSL TO 20 SSW RSL TO 30 SE RSL TO 25 SW SLN TO 15 SW CNK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-019-033-035-041-047-049-073-077-079-095-097- 113-115-143-145-151-155-159-165-169-173-185-191-250740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON MARION OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 250632Z - 250800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds associated with an organized line of storms will spread southeastward across parts of central into southeastern KS early this morning. Downstream watch issuance into parts of northern Oklahoma may be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A small but well organized bow has developed across central KS over the past couple of hours. The VWP from KICT shows a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet is in place across southern KS, which is aiding continued storm intensity. Recent KICT radar data also show strong (generally 40-55 kt) inbound velocities aloft associated with a rear-inflow jet. A relative minimum in MLCIN is being estimated by 06Z mesoanalysis across parts of central into southeastern KS, with a couple wind gusts of 50-70 mph observed within the past hour or so. The apex of this line is moving southeastward around 35-40 kt along an instability gradient, and it should approach the Wichita KS vicinity within the next 1-2 hours. Strong to severe winds capable of producing damage will continue to be the main threat with these storms through the early morning hours. But, isolated large hail may also occur with any embedded supercell, such as the one currently on the western flank of the line in Rush County KS. Although convective inhibition may be somewhat greater into northern OK, there is some potential for this bow to pose an organized severe threat south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618. Accordingly, downstream watch issuance into parts of northern OK may be needed in the next couple of hours, depending on observational trends. ..Gleason.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38309956 38649923 38549864 38649816 38879794 39179769 38839673 38149598 37679575 37049566 36199602 35929685 36189855 36999952 38309956 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more