Severe Storms

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051400- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051400- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051400- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several brief tornadoes remain possible across eastern North Carolina through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Major changes to upgrade and expand tornado probabilities. Tornadic supercells have been observed this morning off the Wilmington 88-D with several debris signatures near the NC/SC border area. Numerous supercells should continue to be embedded within multiple arcing outer bands of Hurricane Dorian. These bands should gradually shift north through the day with a persistent threat for several brief tornadoes. Latest guidance has trended more aggressive with destabilization across the coastal plain of NC where low to mid 70s surface dew points are common at present. Only weak boundary-layer heating north of the ongoing convective bands will be needed to boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This should compensate for comparatively smaller low-level hodographs with northern extent in northeast NC/southeast VA and could support a midday/early afternoon uptick in tornado potential north of the coastal bands. The tornado threat tonight will become confined to the Outer Banks and northeast NC region as Dorian continues to progress northeastward. ...OR vicinity... In the wake of scattered elevated thunderstorms spreading north this morning, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected at peak heating. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern CA coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible with an elevated cluster this morning and with any elevated convection that can redevelop this evening. Ongoing elevated storms across northwest to north-central MN in association with a ribbon of 700-mb warm advection attendant to a leading shortwave impulse should subside as the impulse decays today. However, a quick-moving upstream impulse over southwest SK will aid in mid-level height falls and DCVA overspreading northeast MN and northern WI towards evening. Modest elevated buoyancy and robust speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support a couple rotating updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several brief tornadoes remain possible across eastern North Carolina through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Major changes to upgrade and expand tornado probabilities. Tornadic supercells have been observed this morning off the Wilmington 88-D with several debris signatures near the NC/SC border area. Numerous supercells should continue to be embedded within multiple arcing outer bands of Hurricane Dorian. These bands should gradually shift north through the day with a persistent threat for several brief tornadoes. Latest guidance has trended more aggressive with destabilization across the coastal plain of NC where low to mid 70s surface dew points are common at present. Only weak boundary-layer heating north of the ongoing convective bands will be needed to boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This should compensate for comparatively smaller low-level hodographs with northern extent in northeast NC/southeast VA and could support a midday/early afternoon uptick in tornado potential north of the coastal bands. The tornado threat tonight will become confined to the Outer Banks and northeast NC region as Dorian continues to progress northeastward. ...OR vicinity... In the wake of scattered elevated thunderstorms spreading north this morning, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected at peak heating. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern CA coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible with an elevated cluster this morning and with any elevated convection that can redevelop this evening. Ongoing elevated storms across northwest to north-central MN in association with a ribbon of 700-mb warm advection attendant to a leading shortwave impulse should subside as the impulse decays today. However, a quick-moving upstream impulse over southwest SK will aid in mid-level height falls and DCVA overspreading northeast MN and northern WI towards evening. Modest elevated buoyancy and robust speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support a couple rotating updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several brief tornadoes remain possible across eastern North Carolina through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Major changes to upgrade and expand tornado probabilities. Tornadic supercells have been observed this morning off the Wilmington 88-D with several debris signatures near the NC/SC border area. Numerous supercells should continue to be embedded within multiple arcing outer bands of Hurricane Dorian. These bands should gradually shift north through the day with a persistent threat for several brief tornadoes. Latest guidance has trended more aggressive with destabilization across the coastal plain of NC where low to mid 70s surface dew points are common at present. Only weak boundary-layer heating north of the ongoing convective bands will be needed to boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This should compensate for comparatively smaller low-level hodographs with northern extent in northeast NC/southeast VA and could support a midday/early afternoon uptick in tornado potential north of the coastal bands. The tornado threat tonight will become confined to the Outer Banks and northeast NC region as Dorian continues to progress northeastward. ...OR vicinity... In the wake of scattered elevated thunderstorms spreading north this morning, a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected at peak heating. An approaching shortwave trough off the northern CA coast should support late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support isolated severe wind and hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible with an elevated cluster this morning and with any elevated convection that can redevelop this evening. Ongoing elevated storms across northwest to north-central MN in association with a ribbon of 700-mb warm advection attendant to a leading shortwave impulse should subside as the impulse decays today. However, a quick-moving upstream impulse over southwest SK will aid in mid-level height falls and DCVA overspreading northeast MN and northern WI towards evening. Modest elevated buoyancy and robust speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support a couple rotating updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/05/2019 Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0636 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING AS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVES NORTH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRE TO 30 WNW CRE. COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING AS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVES NORTH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC051-067-051140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-270-272-274-051140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051040Z - 051145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The primary outer convective band to Hurricane Dorian will continue to move north and approach Cape Lookout later this morning. Supercells embedded within the band will pose a tornado risk. A new tornado watch is likely by 8am EDT. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the north periphery of the rain shield associated with Hurricane Dorian steadily moving northward across southern coastal NC. Where buoyancy is greatest, cellular convection in the outer rain band has resulted in training supercells. The KLTX VAD shows an enlarged hodograph and the wind profile will strengthen over the next few hours farther north. The KMHX VAD is beginning to show hodograph enlargement during the past hour. Based on observational trends over southern coastal NC, it appears tornado potential is greatest where an influx of richer low-level moisture from the maritime tropical airmass is able to spread inland. The maritime warm front will probably move to as far inland as the mouths of the sounds located west of the barrier islands and may aid in focusing the tornado threat. Some tornado risk will probably exist farther west but the slightly cooler temperatures may otherwise limit the tornado risk compared to the more-buoyant airmass located near the immediate coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 09/05/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34897865 35557818 36037754 35897560 35267456 34227577 33937695 34737774 34897865 Read more

MD 1927 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 635... FOR NC CAPE FEAR VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...NC Cape Fear vicinity Concerning...Tornado Watch 635... Valid 051000Z - 051100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 635 continues. SUMMARY...Training supercells with tornado potential maximized near and north of Cape Fear for the next hour. Experimental tornado data showing peak wind speeds 100-130mph range for the strongest tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows two outer bands on the northern envelope of Hurricane Dorian located near the border of the SC/NC coast. The maritime warm front has infiltrated the immediate coastal counties with observed surface conditions showing temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees F and middle-upper 70s dewpoints. This is resulting in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per RAP forecast soundings. Additionally, the KLTX VAD is showing around 300 m2/s^2 0-1km SRH when accounting for observed storm motion. A recently tornadic circulation (TDS signature) over Brunswick County, NC likely possessed peak wind speeds between 100-130mph according to experimental tornado data. It seems plausible additional supercell tornadoes will probably develop or move onshore during the next 1-2 hours as the outer band gradually shifts slowly north. ..Smith.. 09/05/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM... LAT...LON 34237874 34337761 34127726 33897747 34057857 34237874 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low through most of the 4-8 period, but at least a modest severe threat could evolve day 5 over a portion of the central Plains. Day 4 (Sunday) - A low amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify further as it moves through the upper MS Valley, with shortwave ridging building across the central Plains. Most thunderstorms Sunday are expected to remain on cool side of a warm front from the central and northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Other storms will likely develop across the Rockies where moisture and instability will be limited. Day 5 (Monday) - It still appears that severe potential may undergo some increase over the central Plains day 6 (Monday) in association with an ejecting shortwave trough. Antecedent conditions will be characterized by widespread storms developing along cool side of a warm front which lowers confidence in destabilization potential. However, modest destabilization may occur from southwest SD through western NE and KS in vicinity of a lee trough during the afternoon. Vertical wind profiles will become supportive of organized storms including a few supercells. Primary uncertainty at this time is evolution of morning activity which will affect afternoon thermodynamics. Day 6 (Tuesday) - Overall severe threat should remain low to modest as the shortwave trough undergoes significant weakening over the upper MS valley and weak shortwave ridging builds over the Plains. A few strong storms with gusty winds could develop along a boundary from the Midwest into the central Plains, but predictability is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low through most of the 4-8 period, but at least a modest severe threat could evolve day 5 over a portion of the central Plains. Day 4 (Sunday) - A low amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify further as it moves through the upper MS Valley, with shortwave ridging building across the central Plains. Most thunderstorms Sunday are expected to remain on cool side of a warm front from the central and northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Other storms will likely develop across the Rockies where moisture and instability will be limited. Day 5 (Monday) - It still appears that severe potential may undergo some increase over the central Plains day 6 (Monday) in association with an ejecting shortwave trough. Antecedent conditions will be characterized by widespread storms developing along cool side of a warm front which lowers confidence in destabilization potential. However, modest destabilization may occur from southwest SD through western NE and KS in vicinity of a lee trough during the afternoon. Vertical wind profiles will become supportive of organized storms including a few supercells. Primary uncertainty at this time is evolution of morning activity which will affect afternoon thermodynamics. Day 6 (Tuesday) - Overall severe threat should remain low to modest as the shortwave trough undergoes significant weakening over the upper MS valley and weak shortwave ridging builds over the Plains. A few strong storms with gusty winds could develop along a boundary from the Midwest into the central Plains, but predictability is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low through most of the 4-8 period, but at least a modest severe threat could evolve day 5 over a portion of the central Plains. Day 4 (Sunday) - A low amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify further as it moves through the upper MS Valley, with shortwave ridging building across the central Plains. Most thunderstorms Sunday are expected to remain on cool side of a warm front from the central and northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Other storms will likely develop across the Rockies where moisture and instability will be limited. Day 5 (Monday) - It still appears that severe potential may undergo some increase over the central Plains day 6 (Monday) in association with an ejecting shortwave trough. Antecedent conditions will be characterized by widespread storms developing along cool side of a warm front which lowers confidence in destabilization potential. However, modest destabilization may occur from southwest SD through western NE and KS in vicinity of a lee trough during the afternoon. Vertical wind profiles will become supportive of organized storms including a few supercells. Primary uncertainty at this time is evolution of morning activity which will affect afternoon thermodynamics. Day 6 (Tuesday) - Overall severe threat should remain low to modest as the shortwave trough undergoes significant weakening over the upper MS valley and weak shortwave ridging builds over the Plains. A few strong storms with gusty winds could develop along a boundary from the Midwest into the central Plains, but predictability is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low through most of the 4-8 period, but at least a modest severe threat could evolve day 5 over a portion of the central Plains. Day 4 (Sunday) - A low amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify further as it moves through the upper MS Valley, with shortwave ridging building across the central Plains. Most thunderstorms Sunday are expected to remain on cool side of a warm front from the central and northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Other storms will likely develop across the Rockies where moisture and instability will be limited. Day 5 (Monday) - It still appears that severe potential may undergo some increase over the central Plains day 6 (Monday) in association with an ejecting shortwave trough. Antecedent conditions will be characterized by widespread storms developing along cool side of a warm front which lowers confidence in destabilization potential. However, modest destabilization may occur from southwest SD through western NE and KS in vicinity of a lee trough during the afternoon. Vertical wind profiles will become supportive of organized storms including a few supercells. Primary uncertainty at this time is evolution of morning activity which will affect afternoon thermodynamics. Day 6 (Tuesday) - Overall severe threat should remain low to modest as the shortwave trough undergoes significant weakening over the upper MS valley and weak shortwave ridging builds over the Plains. A few strong storms with gusty winds could develop along a boundary from the Midwest into the central Plains, but predictability is low at this time. Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051100- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC043-051-067-051100- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-256-270-272-274-276-051100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 ..SMITH..09/05/19 ATTN...WFO...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-129-141-051100- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER SCC043-051-067-051100- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-256-270-272-274-276-051100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a portion of the central Plains region Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough will move east southeast through the northern and central Plains region Saturday. Saturday morning a lee trough will reside from southeast MT into the central High Plains, and this boundary will shift east into western SD and western NE during the day. A stationary front will extend from southeast MT into SD. Farther south a warm front initially across OK will move north and become situated near the KS/NE border during the evening. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to near 60s F dewpoints will characterize the boundary layer across western NE into northeast CO during the afternoon, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. Belt of modest westerlies aloft with 35 kt at 500 mb will accompany the shortwave trough with 30-40 kt deep-layer shear over western NE. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain across the mountains of CO and north of warm front across the Dakotas. Most models develop little to no convection within zone of weak convergence along the lee trough across western NE. Nevertheless, isolated storms might develop in this environment with a conditional threat of a supercell or two capable of locally strong wind gusts and hail. Farther east along the warm front across northern KS, richer low-level moisture with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will support moderate instability with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. While isolated storms will be possible along this boundary across northern KS by late afternoon, a more likely scenario is for elevated storms to develop in southern NE on the cool side of the front overnight supported by increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. Isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary severe threat. ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a portion of the central Plains region Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough will move east southeast through the northern and central Plains region Saturday. Saturday morning a lee trough will reside from southeast MT into the central High Plains, and this boundary will shift east into western SD and western NE during the day. A stationary front will extend from southeast MT into SD. Farther south a warm front initially across OK will move north and become situated near the KS/NE border during the evening. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to near 60s F dewpoints will characterize the boundary layer across western NE into northeast CO during the afternoon, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. Belt of modest westerlies aloft with 35 kt at 500 mb will accompany the shortwave trough with 30-40 kt deep-layer shear over western NE. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain across the mountains of CO and north of warm front across the Dakotas. Most models develop little to no convection within zone of weak convergence along the lee trough across western NE. Nevertheless, isolated storms might develop in this environment with a conditional threat of a supercell or two capable of locally strong wind gusts and hail. Farther east along the warm front across northern KS, richer low-level moisture with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will support moderate instability with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. While isolated storms will be possible along this boundary across northern KS by late afternoon, a more likely scenario is for elevated storms to develop in southern NE on the cool side of the front overnight supported by increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. Isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary severe threat. ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a portion of the central Plains region Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough will move east southeast through the northern and central Plains region Saturday. Saturday morning a lee trough will reside from southeast MT into the central High Plains, and this boundary will shift east into western SD and western NE during the day. A stationary front will extend from southeast MT into SD. Farther south a warm front initially across OK will move north and become situated near the KS/NE border during the evening. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to near 60s F dewpoints will characterize the boundary layer across western NE into northeast CO during the afternoon, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. Belt of modest westerlies aloft with 35 kt at 500 mb will accompany the shortwave trough with 30-40 kt deep-layer shear over western NE. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain across the mountains of CO and north of warm front across the Dakotas. Most models develop little to no convection within zone of weak convergence along the lee trough across western NE. Nevertheless, isolated storms might develop in this environment with a conditional threat of a supercell or two capable of locally strong wind gusts and hail. Farther east along the warm front across northern KS, richer low-level moisture with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will support moderate instability with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. While isolated storms will be possible along this boundary across northern KS by late afternoon, a more likely scenario is for elevated storms to develop in southern NE on the cool side of the front overnight supported by increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. Isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary severe threat. ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a portion of the central Plains region Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough will move east southeast through the northern and central Plains region Saturday. Saturday morning a lee trough will reside from southeast MT into the central High Plains, and this boundary will shift east into western SD and western NE during the day. A stationary front will extend from southeast MT into SD. Farther south a warm front initially across OK will move north and become situated near the KS/NE border during the evening. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to near 60s F dewpoints will characterize the boundary layer across western NE into northeast CO during the afternoon, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. Belt of modest westerlies aloft with 35 kt at 500 mb will accompany the shortwave trough with 30-40 kt deep-layer shear over western NE. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain across the mountains of CO and north of warm front across the Dakotas. Most models develop little to no convection within zone of weak convergence along the lee trough across western NE. Nevertheless, isolated storms might develop in this environment with a conditional threat of a supercell or two capable of locally strong wind gusts and hail. Farther east along the warm front across northern KS, richer low-level moisture with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will support moderate instability with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. While isolated storms will be possible along this boundary across northern KS by late afternoon, a more likely scenario is for elevated storms to develop in southern NE on the cool side of the front overnight supported by increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. Isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary severe threat. ..Dial.. 09/05/2019 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 5 07:20:06 UTC 2019.