Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a parts of the central and northern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the northern High Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into parts of western South Dakota and western Nebraska by afternoon. Ahead of the front, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture should be located from northern Kansas extending northward into west-central Nebraska and southwest South Dakota. Surface dewpoints across much of the central Plains into southern South Dakota should be from the upper 50s to mid 60s F. In response, a narrow zone of moderate instability may develop by afternoon ahead of the front. Although elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, model forecasts suggest that surface-based convection could initiate in the Black Hills or in western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Additional convection will be possible further east across parts of central and eastern Nebraska. NAM and GFS forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon across west-central Nebraska show moderate instability with MLCAPE values in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear values near 40 kt may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Supercells with hail and marginally severe wind gusts can not be ruled out along the corridor of strongest instability. But any severe threat will probably remain very isolated. Further east into parts of eastern Nebraska, hail may be the greater threat due to the elevated nature of the convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Broyles.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a parts of the central and northern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the northern High Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into parts of western South Dakota and western Nebraska by afternoon. Ahead of the front, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture should be located from northern Kansas extending northward into west-central Nebraska and southwest South Dakota. Surface dewpoints across much of the central Plains into southern South Dakota should be from the upper 50s to mid 60s F. In response, a narrow zone of moderate instability may develop by afternoon ahead of the front. Although elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, model forecasts suggest that surface-based convection could initiate in the Black Hills or in western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Additional convection will be possible further east across parts of central and eastern Nebraska. NAM and GFS forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon across west-central Nebraska show moderate instability with MLCAPE values in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear values near 40 kt may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Supercells with hail and marginally severe wind gusts can not be ruled out along the corridor of strongest instability. But any severe threat will probably remain very isolated. Further east into parts of eastern Nebraska, hail may be the greater threat due to the elevated nature of the convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Broyles.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a parts of the central and northern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the northern High Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into parts of western South Dakota and western Nebraska by afternoon. Ahead of the front, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture should be located from northern Kansas extending northward into west-central Nebraska and southwest South Dakota. Surface dewpoints across much of the central Plains into southern South Dakota should be from the upper 50s to mid 60s F. In response, a narrow zone of moderate instability may develop by afternoon ahead of the front. Although elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, model forecasts suggest that surface-based convection could initiate in the Black Hills or in western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Additional convection will be possible further east across parts of central and eastern Nebraska. NAM and GFS forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon across west-central Nebraska show moderate instability with MLCAPE values in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear values near 40 kt may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Supercells with hail and marginally severe wind gusts can not be ruled out along the corridor of strongest instability. But any severe threat will probably remain very isolated. Further east into parts of eastern Nebraska, hail may be the greater threat due to the elevated nature of the convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Broyles.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail will be possible over a parts of the central and northern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the northern High Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into parts of western South Dakota and western Nebraska by afternoon. Ahead of the front, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture should be located from northern Kansas extending northward into west-central Nebraska and southwest South Dakota. Surface dewpoints across much of the central Plains into southern South Dakota should be from the upper 50s to mid 60s F. In response, a narrow zone of moderate instability may develop by afternoon ahead of the front. Although elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, model forecasts suggest that surface-based convection could initiate in the Black Hills or in western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Additional convection will be possible further east across parts of central and eastern Nebraska. NAM and GFS forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon across west-central Nebraska show moderate instability with MLCAPE values in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear values near 40 kt may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Supercells with hail and marginally severe wind gusts can not be ruled out along the corridor of strongest instability. But any severe threat will probably remain very isolated. Further east into parts of eastern Nebraska, hail may be the greater threat due to the elevated nature of the convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Broyles.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern intermountain region, northern Rockies and Front Range this afternoon and evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Hurricane Dorian appears in the process of accelerating northeastward near the North Carolina coast. This is forecast to continue, across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by midday, as at least a couple of significant short wave troughs dig within moderately strong northwest flow across the Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Models suggest that the lead impulse may begin to interact with Dorian by tonight south/southeast of the southern New England coast, but the strongest low-level cyclonic wind field is expected to pass to the south and east of Cape Cod by 12Z Saturday. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain progressive and approach the Pacific coast during this period. As it does, a weaker preceding short wave trough appears likely to progress inland of the northern California and Oregon coast. Models suggest that it will gradually broaden and turn eastward, then southeastward across the northern intermountain region and Rockies. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent mid-level high now centered near the Colorado Rockies, and lee surface troughing will gradually develop across the northern into central High Plains. ...Northern intermountain region/Rockies/Front Range... A belt of moderately strong mid-level flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb) accompanying the short wave trough will contribute to at least modest shear across the region today. Coupled with the development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, the environment may become at least marginally conducive to widely scattered strong storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. This could include isolated supercells. Strongest destabilization, including CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, is expected to become focused within lee surface troughing, near/just east of the Front Range late this afternoon, as well as beneath stronger cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, across parts of eastern Oregon into central and southern Idaho by early this afternoon. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast... The low-level circulation center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast to reach the Outer Banks area of North Carolina by 12Z this morning, with tropical boundary layer instability supportive of any appreciable lingering risk for tornadoes/waterspouts likely east of the southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina coastal waters around the beginning of the period, if not before. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern intermountain region, northern Rockies and Front Range this afternoon and evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Hurricane Dorian appears in the process of accelerating northeastward near the North Carolina coast. This is forecast to continue, across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by midday, as at least a couple of significant short wave troughs dig within moderately strong northwest flow across the Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Models suggest that the lead impulse may begin to interact with Dorian by tonight south/southeast of the southern New England coast, but the strongest low-level cyclonic wind field is expected to pass to the south and east of Cape Cod by 12Z Saturday. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain progressive and approach the Pacific coast during this period. As it does, a weaker preceding short wave trough appears likely to progress inland of the northern California and Oregon coast. Models suggest that it will gradually broaden and turn eastward, then southeastward across the northern intermountain region and Rockies. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent mid-level high now centered near the Colorado Rockies, and lee surface troughing will gradually develop across the northern into central High Plains. ...Northern intermountain region/Rockies/Front Range... A belt of moderately strong mid-level flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb) accompanying the short wave trough will contribute to at least modest shear across the region today. Coupled with the development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, the environment may become at least marginally conducive to widely scattered strong storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. This could include isolated supercells. Strongest destabilization, including CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, is expected to become focused within lee surface troughing, near/just east of the Front Range late this afternoon, as well as beneath stronger cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, across parts of eastern Oregon into central and southern Idaho by early this afternoon. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast... The low-level circulation center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast to reach the Outer Banks area of North Carolina by 12Z this morning, with tropical boundary layer instability supportive of any appreciable lingering risk for tornadoes/waterspouts likely east of the southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina coastal waters around the beginning of the period, if not before. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern intermountain region, northern Rockies and Front Range this afternoon and evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Hurricane Dorian appears in the process of accelerating northeastward near the North Carolina coast. This is forecast to continue, across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by midday, as at least a couple of significant short wave troughs dig within moderately strong northwest flow across the Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Models suggest that the lead impulse may begin to interact with Dorian by tonight south/southeast of the southern New England coast, but the strongest low-level cyclonic wind field is expected to pass to the south and east of Cape Cod by 12Z Saturday. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain progressive and approach the Pacific coast during this period. As it does, a weaker preceding short wave trough appears likely to progress inland of the northern California and Oregon coast. Models suggest that it will gradually broaden and turn eastward, then southeastward across the northern intermountain region and Rockies. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent mid-level high now centered near the Colorado Rockies, and lee surface troughing will gradually develop across the northern into central High Plains. ...Northern intermountain region/Rockies/Front Range... A belt of moderately strong mid-level flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb) accompanying the short wave trough will contribute to at least modest shear across the region today. Coupled with the development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, the environment may become at least marginally conducive to widely scattered strong storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. This could include isolated supercells. Strongest destabilization, including CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, is expected to become focused within lee surface troughing, near/just east of the Front Range late this afternoon, as well as beneath stronger cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, across parts of eastern Oregon into central and southern Idaho by early this afternoon. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast... The low-level circulation center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast to reach the Outer Banks area of North Carolina by 12Z this morning, with tropical boundary layer instability supportive of any appreciable lingering risk for tornadoes/waterspouts likely east of the southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina coastal waters around the beginning of the period, if not before. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern intermountain region, northern Rockies and Front Range this afternoon and evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Hurricane Dorian appears in the process of accelerating northeastward near the North Carolina coast. This is forecast to continue, across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by midday, as at least a couple of significant short wave troughs dig within moderately strong northwest flow across the Canadian Prairies through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Models suggest that the lead impulse may begin to interact with Dorian by tonight south/southeast of the southern New England coast, but the strongest low-level cyclonic wind field is expected to pass to the south and east of Cape Cod by 12Z Saturday. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain progressive and approach the Pacific coast during this period. As it does, a weaker preceding short wave trough appears likely to progress inland of the northern California and Oregon coast. Models suggest that it will gradually broaden and turn eastward, then southeastward across the northern intermountain region and Rockies. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent mid-level high now centered near the Colorado Rockies, and lee surface troughing will gradually develop across the northern into central High Plains. ...Northern intermountain region/Rockies/Front Range... A belt of moderately strong mid-level flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb) accompanying the short wave trough will contribute to at least modest shear across the region today. Coupled with the development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, the environment may become at least marginally conducive to widely scattered strong storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. This could include isolated supercells. Strongest destabilization, including CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, is expected to become focused within lee surface troughing, near/just east of the Front Range late this afternoon, as well as beneath stronger cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, across parts of eastern Oregon into central and southern Idaho by early this afternoon. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast... The low-level circulation center of Hurricane Dorian is forecast to reach the Outer Banks area of North Carolina by 12Z this morning, with tropical boundary layer instability supportive of any appreciable lingering risk for tornadoes/waterspouts likely east of the southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina coastal waters around the beginning of the period, if not before. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 09/06/2019 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E HSE TO 45 NE EWN TO 35 ESE RWI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 ..SMITH..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-055-073-091-095-117-139-143-177-187-060640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HERTFORD HYDE MARTIN PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 ..MOSIER..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107- 117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-060540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060540- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1934 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 637... FOR +PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...+Parts of eastern North Carolina into extreme southeastern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 637... Valid 060345Z - 060545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado or two remains possible with the more persistently rotating storms in the outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian. The threat area will gradually shift north-northeast throughout the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Relatively low-topped storms, including occasional transient supercells, have been concentrated in a few confluence bands across far eastern North Carolina, close to the Virginia border. These bands are persisting in an environment characterized by very modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and effective SRH exceeding 300 m2/s2 per latest mesoanalysis. The axis of instability, and subsequent overlap of favorable CAPE/shear parameter space is slowly shifting offshore. In addition, lightning density has been on a slowly decreasing trend over the past couple of hours, with a decrease in low-level rotation/mesoscyclone frequency as well. Still, given the strong low-level shear and adequate (albeit marginal) instability in place, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with the more intense, sustained updrafts across portions of northeast North Carolina into extreme southeast Virginia through the overnight hours. The aforementioned band(s) of convection are expected to persist over the next few hours. The threat area will spread northeastward across far northeast North Carolina into far southeast Virginia, along with the isolated tornado threat, before moving offshore as Hurricane Dorian continues on its current trajectory. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 34797807 36537695 36887648 36927588 36417538 35577514 34997550 34647608 34797807 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107- 117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-060340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

MD 1933 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 637... FOR EASTERN NC...FAR SOUTHEASTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...Eastern NC...Far Southeastern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 637... Valid 060031Z - 060230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes continues across eastern NC and far southeastern VA. DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar imagery, the center of Hurricane Dorian appears to be about 60 miles south of Wilmington, NC. Two well-defined rain bands exist, one about 125 miles from the center and the other about 160 miles. The southern band currently extends from Craven County NC southeastward offshore while the northern band extends from Martin County NC southeastward offshore. Lightning and a few transient circulations have been noted within the northern band. As of 0025Z, only a few lightning strikes have been noted within the southern band. Both of these bands are expected to gradually move northward over the next several hours. Any tornado potential over the next two hours will likely occur within these bands as cells sporadically deepen. ..Mosier.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 36177744 36547681 36517601 36177542 34307536 34277720 34897809 36177744 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 5 23:01:02 UTC 2019.

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more