Severe Storms

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MKL TO 15 W CHA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 ..WEINMAN..08/09/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-019-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093- 095-103-127-133-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CHEROKEE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-057-117-141-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN ITAWAMBA PRENTISS TISHOMINGO Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 091850Z - 100100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northeast Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase and intensify along a warm front/instability gradient across the region, with wind profiles supportive of a few supercells and bowing segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 50 miles north northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 618 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 092105Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The air mass in the wake of storms earlier today continues to gradually destabilize, with severe storms expected to increase mainly near a front through late afternoon and early evening. Strong wind profiles will support initial supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Springfield MO to 30 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 617... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Montana...southern North Dakota...northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092059Z - 092330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail or wind may occur later this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus, along with sparse areas of convective initiation, are underway ahead of a diffuse trailing cold front from extreme eastern MT, eastward along the SD/ND border. Ample heating has mixed the boundary layer, with observed upper 70s/low 80s F temperatures amid low 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8.5+ C/km boundary-layer lapse rates (20Z mesoanalysis). Given the dry boundary layer, RAP forecast soundings depict the 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (currently in place) distributed in tall/skinny profiles, though unidirectional speed shear is in place. As such, a few multicells or transient supercells may become sustained and support an instance or two of severe hail/wind. Since the severe threat should be sparse, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47890494 47620358 46419934 46079728 45589689 45069696 44809822 44880039 45290175 46080364 46640481 47450509 47890494 Read more

MD 1920 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northern Alabama...southern Tennessee... northwest Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 092042Z - 092245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...The primary hazard within WW 617 will remain damaging wind gusts with an organized linear segment along the AL/TN border. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream as the airmass destabilizes further. A tornado threat may also be developing along the outflow from this cluster from northeast Mississippi into northern Alabama. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster/linear segment of storms continues east along the Alabama/Tennessee border. With temperatures warming into the mid/upper 80s F in parts of southeastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia, this activity may be able to persist and pose a threat for wind damage into these areas. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon into parts of southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia. Along the outflow to the southwest, one storm has initiated in northeast Mississippi with other deepening cumulus in the vicinity. These storms will likely be more discrete and pose a threat for a tornado or two as well as large hail and damaging winds. Convective trends will need to be monitored with this activity to determine if a more substantive tornado threat will develop in the next few hours. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34188860 34928766 35218742 35698727 35418465 35168400 34328389 33728433 33688649 33998834 34188860 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook risk areas. See previous discussion for more information. Additional information on thunderstorm chances below. ...Mix of Wet/Dry Thunderstorms North Central Texas... High-based scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across north-central Texas Thursday afternoon. Lightning activity is expected along with gusty outflow winds. Rainfall amounts overall are expected to be brief and light. Additionally, some portion of this region has seen light rain in the last few days. Given the extremely dry fuels, new starts will be possible with locally gusty conditions leading to increased fire behavior. No areas were included at this time as confidence in where dry over wet thunderstorm activity will be is low. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be more limited Thursday compared to previous days with the greatest threat most likely to emerge out of southern to central TX. Elsewhere across the country, localized elevated fire weather conditions may develop across the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho, as well as the Wyoming Basin in southwest Wyoming, but unreceptive fuels will limit the fire weather threat. ...Texas... As with previous days, hot conditions are forecast again across much of the state with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-30% range. Fuels should remain critically dry despite isolated rain/thunderstorm chances across north TX on Wednesday. However, winds will generally be benign (between 10-15 mph). There is modest probability for sustained winds near 15 mph from the Big Bend region into west central TX in the vicinity of a weak confluence axis. An Elevated risk area is introduced to highlight this corridor where at least 2-3 hours of winds near 15 mph are possible during peak heating. Thunderstorms developing along the boundary by late afternoon will pose a risk of gusty, erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments -- including a slight southward shift of the risk areas across the Ozarks/Arkansas area and also over northern Lower Michigan -- no appreciable changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 08/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023/ ...Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... Today's severe-weather scenario remains rather complex, largely owing to persistent regenerative precipitation through midday across the Ozarks southwestward into eastern Oklahoma. Short-term guidance appears to be reflecting typical biases/tendencies regarding later-day destabilization, with the 12z NAM likely too aggressive in destabilization (especially with northward extent), with recent RAP runs much more muted buoyancy-wise and southward focused. Regardless of some uncertainties as far as thermodynamic details and meso-beta spatial preferred severe corridors, rather active severe-weather potential still appears likely across the region later today into tonight, especially in deference to seasonally strong wind fields. Initially, ongoing convection across the Mid-South, in vicinity of far eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee at late morning, may intensify and gradually become surface-based this afternoon as it progresses generally eastward across the Tennessee Valley, especially on the southwest flank of these storms in proximity to the warm front. A favorable wind profile, increasing low-level moisture, and the eastern edge of steeper lapse rates aloft (reference 12z observed soundings from Little Rock and Jackson) will support some supercells capable of large hail, along with some tornado potential. Damaging winds will also be possible as activity congeals into clusters across the Tennessee Valley through the afternoon. For additional short-term details (through early afternoon), see Mesoscale Discussion 1914. After a relatively short convective lull (a few hours at most), a secondary round of severe thunderstorms is expected to initiate near/ahead of the surface cold front/inverted trough across parts of central to southern Missouri into eastern Oklahoma during the late afternoon, with outflow/meso-beta zones of differential heating influential as well. As related to the previously discussed thermodynamic uncertainties, the northward-extent (namely across Missouri) of the more intense/higher-coverage severe storms will be highly dependent upon relatively quick/substantive clearing this afternoon. Deep-layer shear vectors will be at least semi-orthogonal to the initiating front and should support initially discrete supercells amid 45-60 kt effective bulk shear. Strengthening low-level southwesterlies during the evening will further enlarge hodograph curvature across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. This could foster potential for a couple strong tornadoes, but some of this depends on the evolution of the low-level thermodynamic fields in the wake of early day convection. Where storms intensify/mature, upscale growth is likely this evening as low to mid-level flow fields strengthen ahead of the shortwave trough tracking towards the middle Mississippi Valley. This should result in an MCS tracking southeast along the baroclinic zone trailing northwest in the wake of the early-day storms. The spatial extent and amplitude of severe wind gusts will be modulated by cold pools from prior convection and background nocturnal stabilization to some degree. But given 65-80 kt rear-inflow low-level winds depicted in some guidance, there is conditional potential for a more widespread damaging wind threat with embedded significant severe surface gusts and QLCS tornadoes amid bowing structures/mesovortices. ...Upper Midwest from eastern Dakotas to northern Michigan... Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase by late afternoon along a southward sagging front across a broad west-to-east expanse, likely in a very isolated manner across the Dakotas with a bit more of a concentration (scattered) across eastern Minnesota into northwest/north-central Wisconsin, and possibly northern Michigan. These storms will mature in an environment with only modest buoyancy (MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg), but effective shear values between 30-35 kt. Given storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely off the front, discrete to semi-discrete storms are probable. Isolated instances of severe hail and wind are possible, mainly late this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, and from the Alabama vicinity to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Within the belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the U.S. Thursday, two short-wave troughs will be associated with two distinct areas of convective/severe potential. The first of these troughs is expected to cross the central and southern Appalachians region during the day, and then should move off the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Coasts during the evening. Meanwhile, the second trough -- expected over the northern and central High Plains area early in the day --will move east-southeastward across the Plains through the afternoon, and to the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley region by the end of the period. At the surface, a compact low/frontal system is forecast to cross the central and southern Appalachians region early, and then across Virginia and the Carolinas through the day. The front should clear the East coast from New Jersey southward through late afternoon/early evening, with the low then continuing across southern New England into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a weaker low/trough is forecast to cross the Plains through the afternoon/evening hours. ...Parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions... Thunderstorms -- possibly in the form of an at least loosely organized band -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western Carolinas vicinity. These storms may be accompanied by ongoing risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some decrease in intensity may occur with this convection into the afternoon, though indications are that subsequent storm redevelopment may occur across the southeastern Virginia/eastern Carolinas area during the afternoon, ahead of the advancing cold front. These storms would also likely pose a risk for damaging winds locally, along with potential for hail and a tornado or two before storms move offshore during the evening. ...Northern Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley area... Diurnal heating ahead of an advancing/weak cool front will result in moderate afternoon warm-sector destabilization across the central and northern Plains region. As the boundary advances in tandem with weak upper short-wave troughing, isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by latter stages of the afternoon period. CAM output from various models differs, with respect to storm coverage, though several suggest upscale/linear growth with time, and possibly even an eventual southeastward-moving, bowing MCS across the Mid-Missouri Valley area during the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. In any case, with 35 to 45 kt mid-level west-northwesterlies across the area, atop low-level southerly warm-sector winds, shear will support potential for organized storms, and attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts, and severe-caliber hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly across the eastern South Dakota vicinity where slightly backed low-level flow is anticipated ahead of the weak surface low. While storm coverage remains uncertain, current indications are that upgrade to SLGT risk is warranted for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Southern New England... As a deepening surface low crosses southern New England during the second half of Thursday, meager CAPE may support a few thunderstorms. Within the northeast quadrant of the low -- across southeastern New England -- a very favorable flow field is anticipated, with low-level winds veering/increasing rapidly with height. While the thermodynamic deficiency that is anticipated should substantially limit overall potential, conditional risk for a couple of stronger wind gusts and/or a tornado or two is evident, mainly from late afternoon through late evening, until the low and associated front sweep northeastward/offshore. ..Goss.. 08/09/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 8 22:16:12 UTC 2023.

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..08/08/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-082240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-153-181-193-199-082240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101- 105-111-113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-082240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 082035Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms will develop through late afternoon/early evening across the region, including supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk, especially with the storms across far northeast Colorado/far northwest Kansas/far southwest Nebraska. Storms will gradually cluster by early evening with an increased potential for damaging winds, some of them capable of significantly strong and destructive winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles south southwest of Torrington WY to 45 miles northeast of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CEW TO 20 S DHN TO 15 WNW ABY TO 25 NW MCN. ..WEINMAN..08/08/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-082240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC059-063-131-133-082240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-017-019-021-023-027-071-075-079-081-087-091-093-095-099- 131-153-155-173-177-185-193-201-205-225-235-253-261-271-275-277- 287-289-315-321-082240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 081905Z - 090100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Within a hot/very moist air mass, storms should continue to intensify across the region as they move eastward, including the potential development of some semi-organized clusters capable of wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Troy AL to 60 miles northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Texas... Extremely dry and warm conditions, with daily highs 100+ F degrees, will continue across central and southern Texas through the extended period. While light rainfall will be possible across portions of southwest/north central Texas, much of central Texas will likely remain dry through D8. High pressure building in across the Four Corners to the Southern Plains will keep winds mostly light, though locally breezy conditions may occur. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns will be likely daily, with low confidence in any one corridor where sustained winds will support Critical risk probabilities. Though the winds will largely stay below criteria, expect continued potential for new fire starts and rapid fire growth in hot and unstable conditions and extremely critically dry fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Potential remnants of tropical storm activity will spread northward into California and southern Oregon beginning D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday. Recent model runs have been slower and drier with northern extent of the incoming moisture. Initial activity across central/northern California will likely be isolated, with low potential for a dry thunderstorm or two. Potential for thunderstorms will increase into D5 - Saturday and D6 - Sunday as better instability spreads across northern California. A mix of wet/dry storms with gusty and erratic winds may be possible. Confidence in coverage remains too low to include any areas at this time but this will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0615 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 082130Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Florida Southeast Georgia Extreme southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward through late evening with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Waycross GA to 60 miles east northeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 613...WW 614... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the central Plains during the late afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two are possible. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail will also remain possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast. ...Discussion... The MRGL risk area over southeastern New England is being removed in this update, as earlier storms have moved offshore, and any risk with subsequent convection should remain low. Otherwise, no changes appear to be needed to existing lines and associated forecast reasoning, as evolution of the scenario continues according to prior expectations. ..Goss.. 08/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023/ ...Wyoming/northern Colorado to Central Plains... A prominent summertime shortwave trough will continue to advance southeastward over southeast Idaho/northern Utah into Wyoming today, with downstream height falls influencing the High Plains by evening. This scenario will enhance lee troughing, aiding a north-northwestward surge of low-level moisture through late afternoon/evening toward much of the Colorado Front Range and southeast Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains/higher terrain of northern Colorado/southern Wyoming by mid-afternoon, with a subsequent increase/eastward spread, along with additional development into the larger buoyancy environment across the central High Plains including northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Strengthening late-day westerlies (35-45 kt) will contribute to elongated, nearly-straight hodographs, while buoyancy with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should be maximized across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Splitting supercells are expected with a north/south-oriented cluster likely evolving relatively quickly as outflows consolidate towards the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. The potential for a longer-track discrete supercell or two appears greatest along the southern periphery of convective development owing to lack of interference from other storms. Very large hail, significant severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and enhanced warm/moist advection near/above the surface could help maintain or even reinvigorate the MCS east-southeastward into central/eastern Kansas overnight, with damaging wind potential and possibly some hail risk. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The leading edge of a residual MCS is ongoing across the Lower Mississippi Valley at late morning, with a considerable amount of trailing stratiform precipitation. Much of this MCS will continue to interface with the cooler/more stable side of the front that arcs roughly west-to-east across Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama and Georgia, with some of the MCS-related cloud canopy extending across the downstream warm sector. But even a glancing influence of the MCS/any MCV and related outflows should contribute to at least isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development near the front this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes moderately to strongly unstable, with upper 70s F warm-sector surface dewpoints common. Upstream WSR-88D VWP data (such as Fort Smith AR and Little Rock this morning) does sample a seasonally strong 50+ kt belt of westerlies between 3-8 km AGL, with the stronger winds grazing the frontal zone/adjacent warm sector. This is likely to support sustained/relatively organized multicellular clusters with scattered damaging winds as the most common hazard. ...New England... A relatively short duration severe risk may briefly linger early this afternoon across coastal southeast New England in association with a narrow warm/moist sector ahead of a secondary surface low, including the possibly of a localized wind damage and/or a brief tornado. Otherwise, convective development this afternoon is anticipated over western New England where deep-layer shear will be weak in closer proximity to the trough axis, with the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development expected to remain low. ...Northern Minnesota/eastern North Dakota... A shortwave trough over northern Manitoba and northwest Ontario will continue to dig southeastward, with a cold front settling southward across North Dakota/northern Minnesota through tonight. Thunderstorms should be focused along the front particularly late this afternoon through early evening. An adequate combination of deep-layer shear and instability should support an isolated severe wind/hail risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO NORTH TEXAS... The current D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across central to north Texas on Wednesday as a surface trough moves through the region and strengthens low-level winds. More localized concerns may emerge across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. ...Texas... The upper trough currently approaching the central Rockies is forecast to slowly meander east into the mid-MS Valley by late Wednesday. As this occurs, an attendant surface trough trailing into central TX will migrate east. This will strengthen region pressure gradient winds, with ensemble guidance showing reasonably high probability for sustained 15-20 mph south/southwesterly winds. With exceptionally dry fuels already in place and temperatures exceeding 100 F expected by mid-afternoon, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected. There is some uncertainty regarding 1) the potential for wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours (and its impact on fuel status), and 2) the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon along the surface trough. These storms may produce beneficial rain and modulate the overall fire threat, or could produce gusty outflow winds and locally exacerbate fire concerns. ...Southwest and Great Basin... More localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected across central NM and western to central NV. Across NM, 15-20 mph gradient winds in the wake of the surface trough are likely and should overlap with RH values in the teens to low 20s. However, recent rainfall has likely mitigated fuel status across this region. To the west, downslope flow in the lee of the Sierra Nevada may support localized elevated conditions across western/southern NV. Ensemble guidance suggests these conditions will remain fairly localized and confined to the immediate lee of the terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short wave trough, embedded in a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly flow across the central and eastern U.S., will advance steadily east-southeastward, crossing the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A belt of enhanced flow in the lower and middle troposphere (40 to 60 kt at mid levels) will spread across the Ozarks through the day, and across the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and overnight. At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a weak low initially progged over eastern Kansas -- is forecast to shift eastward into the Ozarks and southeastern Oklahoma through the day, and then across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley overnight. By the end of the period, the front should extend from a low over the Ohio vicinity west-southwestward to North Texas. ...Eastern portions of KS/OK eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-South/Southeast... Expectations remain that fairly widespread convection will be ongoing at the start of the period across eastern Kansas and Missouri, which should shift eastward through the day into/across the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Very limited/local severe risk may be ongoing early, and should increase through the day as the airmass ahead of the convection destabilizes. Locally damaging winds should be the primary severe risk assuming storms intensify as expected, along with potential for hail and a tornado or two. Meanwhile, a second round of convection is forecast to develop in the recovering airmass across the Ozarks vicinity ahead of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening, with timing and initial intensity of the convection modulated by prior storms and any lingering cloud cover. Eventually, storms should intensify and grow upscale into one or more clusters -- aided by a 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet. At this time, it appears that overall risk for damaging winds -- potential from two separate rounds of storms -- warrants upgrade to ENH risk/30% wind probability across parts of the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, which would continue well into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/08/2023 Read more