Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more