Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire-weather concerns appear negligible over the CONUS with weak winds, cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will become established across the western and central CONUS as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Appalachians tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to overspread the Rockies to East Coast areas, as appreciable precipitation accumulates over much of California. When also considering marginal fuel statuses across the U.S., the threat for significant wildfire-spread potential currently appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0722 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0722 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 17 17:51:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 Read more